Kiatnakin Phatra Securities (KKPS) wrote that Thailand’s retail sector demonstrated resilient same-store sales (SSS) momentum in January 2026, largely maintaining the trajectory set in the fourth quarter of 2025, even as the sector grappled with a challenging high base and adverse calendar effects.
According to KKPS, average January SSS are expected to slightly improve quarter-on-quarter, remaining in the negative low single-digits. This performance comes despite several headwinds, including the absence of the government’s shopping tax break (which ran the previous year from 16 January to 28 February), a shifting of the Lunar New Year (LNY) festivities from January 2025 to February 2026, and delays in government spending following the dissolution of parliament.
The brokerage notes that recovery in upcountry consumption is set to help offset weak urban store performance, with particular resilience expected from smaller ticket lifestyle retailers operating in shopping malls (notably CPN), upcountry home improvement firms like GLOBAL, and CPALL’s convenience store network. Both CPALL and lifestyle retailers are projected to post positive SSS in January.
For consumer staples, KKPS projects that the average January SSS of grocery retailers will remain in the negative low single-digits, mirroring the figures seen in the final quarter of 2025. Consumption showed a strong start in the early weeks of January; however, this momentum was tempered as the month progressed due to the high base effect from last year’s LNY.
Larger retail formats, such as Makro and hypermarkets under CPAXT, are set to bear the brunt of the calendar effects. In contrast, the convenience store segment should see less of an impact. CPALL is expected to deliver slightly positive SSS, outperforming its grocery retail peers, many of whom are poised to post declines in the low to mid-single-digit range.
Meanwhile, discretionary retailers are projected to see SSS improve from negative mid to high single-digit figures in 4Q25 to negative low to mid-single-digits in January. This modest pickup is attributed to improved sales from small-ticket lifestyle retailers and upcountry home improvement chains, helping to counterbalance continued softness in urban discretionary spending, particularly across formats like HMPRO’s Homepro stores and CRC’s fashion outlets. The high comparative base from the prior year contributed to this muted performance.
KKPS notes that the recovery could have been stronger, but public construction projects faced delays following the recent House dissolution, impacting demand for building materials.
GLOBAL is expected to see quarter-on-quarter improvement as end-user demand gradually recovers. CRC and HMPRO, on the other hand, are projected to record SSS declines in the mid-to-high single-digit range, mainly due to persistent urban weakness from the lack of a new shopping tax break.
Looking ahead, KKPS expects grocery retail SSS to rebound in February, supported by Lunar New Year spending. However, discretionary consumption in urban areas is forecast to remain subdued for another month, with the high base effect from last year’s shopping tax break continuing to exert pressure.
The impact of these headwinds is anticipated to subside from February onward, paving the way for a gradual pick-up in discretionary SSS into the second quarter. In light of these expectations, KKPS maintains its ‘Buy’ ratings on leading names CPN, GLOBAL, and CPALL.
