Kiatnakin Phatra Securities (KKPS) has released a robust fourth-quarter 2025 earnings forecast for Gulf Development Public Company Limited (SET: GULF), following the company’s recent amalgamation with Intouch Holdings, which became effective on April 1, 2025. As a result of this restructuring, there is no year-on-year comparison.
Core profit for 4Q25 is estimated at THB 7.8 billion, up 7% from the previous quarter. Excluding profit-sharing from Advanced Info Service Public Company Limited (SET: ADVANC), net profit growth is forecast at 10% quarter-on-quarter. Meanwhile, including an anticipated foreign exchange gain of THB 270 million from the baht’s appreciation against the U.S. dollar, net profit is expected to reach THB 8 billion, a solid 11% jump from 3Q25. The official report is scheduled to be released on February 17, 2026.
KKPS maintains its “Buy” recommendation on GULF, with a price objective of THB 57, derived from a sum-of-the-parts valuation approach.
Operationally, total EBIT for the quarter is projected at THB 12.3 billion, a 5% QoQ increase. Similarly, EBITDA is expected to reach THB 14.3 billion — with 70% originating from the power business — representing a 5% increase from the previous quarter.
Excluding joint venture projects, EBITDA is estimated to stand at THB 8.2 billion, up 7% QoQ. This forecast rise is attributed to higher availability hours at the GPD IPP plant, which had previously undergone a maintenance shutdown in 3Q25. Conversely, EBITDA from power JV projects is forecast to decline by 9% QoQ, in part due to a decrease in availability payments from Gulf JP.
Profit-sharing from associated companies is anticipated to reach THB 6.1 billion, a 7% QoQ increase. This growth is driven by three main contributors:
1. Ongoing positive net subscriber additions and average revenue per user (ARPU) expansion at ADVANC, estimated to yield THB 4.2 billion (+10% QoQ).
2. Hin Kong Power, poised to contribute THB 385 million, a 50% increase QoQ.
3. A notable turnaround at the Borkum Riffgrund offshore wind project in the North Sea, forecast to deliver THB 300 million in 4Q25, compared to a THB 72 million equity loss in 3Q25, due to high seasonal capacity utilization.
Additionally, GULF’s data center business is expected to post a narrower loss quarter-on-quarter.
Looking ahead, KKPS projects a dividend per share (DPS) of at least THB 1 for 2025, based on a historical average payout ratio of 65-70%, well above the company’s minimum policy rate of 30%. The ex-dividend (XD) date is anticipated for late February or early March 2026. GULF’s management is currently considering implementing an interim dividend policy for 2026, KKPS noted.
