Bangkok Airways Public Company Limited (SET: BA) is emerging as a standout value play in Thailand’s tourism sector, with Kiatnakin Phatra Securities (KKPS) forecasting robust core profit growth and record earnings for 2026.
For the fourth quarter of 2025, KKPS projects that BA’s core profit will expand by 7% year-on-year to THB 484 million. While overall passenger volume is anticipated to dip slightly by 1-2% compared to the previous year, the Samui route is set to deliver 4-5% growth.
In contrast, non-Samui passenger numbers could drop by 10% due to the airline’s deliberate focus on Samui-bound flights. This targeted strategy is reflected in the load factor, which is expected to remain steady at 73%, showing improvement from a 3-percentage-point decline in the previous quarter.
Passenger revenue is expected to decline marginally by 2% year-on-year, although non-airline revenue—led by catering and higher passenger service charge (PSC) revenue—is projected to increase by about 3%. A key driver for profitability is the anticipated 10% reduction in fuel costs, thanks to lower jet fuel prices, alongside a 1% drop in non-fuel costs as the fleet size is trimmed to 23 aircraft from 25 in the previous year.
Meanwhile, BA is expected to report a foreign exchange loss between THB 50-70 million, due to the Thai baht’s appreciation against the US dollar. As a result, net profit is forecast in the range of THB 414-434 million for the quarter.
Looking ahead to the first quarter of 2026, the company is benefiting from strong forward bookings at Samui hotels, with major operators such as Asset World Corporation (AWC) and Central Plaza Hotel (CENTEL) reporting year-on-year booking increases of 10% and 6-8% respectively, and S Hotels & Resorts (SHR) seeing double-digit growth.
This underpins expectations for Samui passenger traffic to climb by 3-5% year-on-year in 1Q26. The anticipated rebound in non-Samui passenger numbers from a low base could also support another strong quarter, with core profit potentially exceeding the previous record of THB 1.8 billion set in the first quarter of 2024.
Despite BA’s 27% decline since the start of 2025, which has seen it underperform the broader SET Index by 29%, KKPS maintains a positive outlook on the company. The stock now trades at an attractive valuation of 9x projected 2026 earnings, with a 7% estimated dividend yield and a 22% return on equity (ROE).
KKPS continues to recommend a ‘Buy’ on BA, highlighting expectations for core profit to reach a record THB 3.9 billion in 2026, a remarkable turnaround from the THB 1.8 billion loss in 2019 before COVID-19.
