Maybank Securities (Thailand) continues to hold a ‘Neutral’ outlook on the Thai residential property sector, expecting the recovery to progress gradually following an earnings trough in the first half of 2025.
The analyst notes that the overall fundamentals are showing early signs of stabilisation, with sector net presales improving sequentially during the second half of 2025 and a noticeable uptick in new project launches.
Despite these positive signals, subdued GDP growth during the first half of 2026 and persistently high unsold low-rise inventory may inhibit the sector’s speed of recovery, particularly within the low-rise segment. The firm forecasts a moderate year-on-year decline in aggregate new residential launches for 2026.
For the fourth quarter of 2025, Maybank projects the sector’s aggregate core profit to reach THB 5.3 billion—a 10% decline year-on-year but a 21% surge quarter-on-quarter. The year-on-year drop is attributed primarily to Supalai’s (SPALI) decreased housing revenue and a gross profit margin (GPM) contraction of 4.7 percentage points. Notably, this comes despite fourth-quarter housing revenue marking the peak for 2025.
The quarter’s strong sequential performance, however, is expected to be supported by SC Asset’s (SC) robust results, which include a 59% growth in core profit from a 41% increase in housing revenue, and Sansiri’s (SIRI) 29% jump in new condominium transfers worth THB 6 billion, alongside a 1.9 percentage point increase in GPM. On average, housing GPM is projected to remain broadly stable, dipping just 0.3 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, with overall housing revenue rising 21.5% from the previous quarter, led by SC Asset.
Maybank expects core profits for the first quarter of 2026 to soften on a quarter-on-quarter basis, as new launches remained slow between December 2025 and January 2026. Developers are believed to have postponed launches, awaiting more stable domestic conditions, including the anticipated election, before proceeding.
Despite this, a notable year-on-year profit increase is expected, boosted by a low comparative base in 1Q25 when no government stimulus was in place. 1Q26 is anticipated to be supported by relaxed loan-to-value (LTV) rules and reduced property transfer and mortgage registration fees.
Following these, Maybank continues to favor AP (Thailand) (AP) as its top pick in the sector, maintaining a target price of THB 10.5 per share. The firm cites AP’s low leverage profile (net interest-bearing debt-to-equity ratio of 0.7x), disciplined inventory management (inventory days at 2.96 years), and a proven track record of execution.
These strengths position AP well to gain market share and deliver an estimated 11% earnings growth in 2026 amid challenging industry conditions and macroeconomic headwinds.
