On Thursday at 4:14 PM (Bangkok time), the share price of PTG Energy Public Company Limited (SET: PTG) gained 8.14% or THB 0.70 to THB 9.30, with a trading value of THB 268.95 million.
Krungsri Securities (KSS) expresses a positive view on PTG, citing the company’s accelerating growth in its non-oil businesses—led by its popular Punthai Coffee chain.
Key factors supporting this uptick include rapid expansion of Punthai branches, strong same-store sales growth, and prudent cost management, all of which are expected to propel PTG’s normalized profit for the fourth quarter of 2025 to approximately THB 354 million. This represents an impressive increase of 55% year-on-year and 73% quarter-on-quarter.
The analyst expects PTG’s core oil retail business to show steady improvement, with total fuel sales volume reaching 1.71 billion liters—a 1% year-on-year and 8% quarter-on-quarter rise, driven by branch expansion and seasonal consumption recovery.
Marketing margin is foreseen to hold steady at THB 1.65 per liter, unchanged year-on-year and down 2% quarter-on-quarter, amid volatile oil costs. The margin is also slated to bear short-term pressures from government-led price reductions at the pump, a measure considered temporary by Krungsri, especially during the election period.
For non-oil businesses, revenue from Punthai Coffee is anticipated to soar by 151% year-on-year and 20% quarter-on-quarter, powered by an aggressive 60% year-on-year and 14% quarter-on-quarter store expansion and surging demand for fresh coffee.
Effective workforce cost management should ensure that SG&A expenses do not increase in proportion to the branch expansion. These factors are expected to offset a projected decline in profit sharing, which may decrease 77% year-on-year and 80% quarter-on-quarter due to anticipated one-time bad debt expenses.
Looking ahead, Krungsri expects PTG’s normalized profit in 1Q26 to continue its upward trajectory, thanks to a rebound in oil marketing margins as government intervention subsides and continued growth in the Punthai Coffee business.
The brokerage maintains its long-term view of sustainable growth for PTG, noting that the oil segment recovery is still in early stages, with potential for further improvement as the Oil Fund balance turns positive, reducing the need for government price controls.
Krungsri projects PTG’s normalized profit to achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18% during 2025–2027—the highest among its retail fuel station peers. The company remains Krungsri’s top sector pick, maintaining a ‘Buy’ recommendation with a target price of THB 10 per share in 2026.
