Pi Securities estimates Stecon Group Public Company Limited (SET: STECON)’s 4Q25 net profit to reach THB 282 million, a turnaround from a net loss of THB 2.24 billion in the previous year due to multiple provisions and a 72% increase from the previous quarter, following higher revenue from accelerated deliveries of solar power plant projects.
The analyst estimates revenue at THB 10.41 billion (up 35% YoY and 38% QoQ), boosted by the expedited construction of solar power plant projects valued at over THB 6 billion, and the Data Center project which resumed construction in the fourth quarter after being delayed in 3Q25.
The gross profit margin is forecasted at 7.2%, stable compared to 3Q25 but reversing from a gross loss margin of 13% in 4Q24, as the previous year recorded expenses for repairing Bueng Nong Bon and costs for the MRT Yellow and Pink Line projects. Administrative expenses are estimated at THB 312 million (up 82% YoY and 20% QoQ).
Overall, Pi Securities expects STECON to achieve an operating profit of THB 434 million, swinging from a loss of THB 1.17 billion in 4Q24 and up 54% from the previous quarter. Share of loss from joint ventures is projected at THB 32 million, decreasing 76% YoY due to the absence of losses from the MRT Yellow and Pink Lines which ceased in 2Q25, but rising 227% QoQ due to a condominium joint venture with Noble currently under construction.
The brokerage firm did not include special items such as the reversal of provisions for the CFP project of Thai Oil Public Company Limited (SET: TOP), which has now been settled, allowing STECON to gradually recognize them in its financial statements.
If profits meet expectations, 2025 full-year net profit will be THB 1.29 billion, exceeding the previous estimate of THB 1.06 billion. However, excluding special items, core profit will be THB 941 million.
Pi Securities has revised up their 2026 profit forecast by 5% from previous baseline, supported by a strong backlog and the continued progress of the U-Tapao Airport project, raising the revenue estimate by 6% to THB 34.5 billion (up 4% YoY), and projecting new net profit of THB 1.26 billion (up 34% YoY, excluding 2025 special items).
Given the positive performance outlook, Pi Securities continue to recommend “BUY” for speculative investment, and have set a new target price at THB 11.20 per share (13.5x PER 2026E).
Meanwhile, TISCO Securities maintains a “BUY” rating on STECON, citing the company’s robust THB 126 billion backlog and growing private-sector momentum as key drivers for its 2026 recovery.
The brokerage has set a 12-month target price of THB 11.50 per share, representing a 14% upside from the current level. TISCO noted that, despite delays in public-sector project bidding until late 2026, STECON’s diversification into high-margin businesses—including data centers, renewable energy, and water infrastructure—provides strong earnings visibility even amid Thailand’s political transition.
Additionally, TISCO Securities has revised up its 4Q25 net profit estimate for STECON to THB 285 million, with normalized profit projected at THB 245 million after excluding a one-off item. The improvement is driven by higher construction revenue from accelerated progress in data center and solar power projects, along with a significant recovery in gross margin.
