KGI Securities (Thailand) wrote in an analysis that PTT Public Company Limited (SET: PTT) reported an impressive net profit of THB 25.5 billion for 4Q25, marking a staggering 174% year-on-year increase and 29% rise quarter-on-quarter. The result exceeded the Bloomberg consensus by 14% and was in line with KGI’s expectation.
The company also announced a 2H25 dividend of THB 1.2 per share, along with a special dividend of THB 0.2 per share, both scheduled with an ex-dividend (XD) date on March 5. This brings the total full-year dividend for 2025 to THB 2.3 per share—including THB 0.9 paid out for 1H25—implying an attractive 6.1% yield at current market prices.
The remarkable year-on-year profit growth was primarily driven by a substantial THB 6.7 billion hedging gain, compared to a THB 4.7 billion loss recorded in 4Q24. On a quarter-to-quarter basis, performance was bolstered by a THB 7.5 billion gain from the disposal of up to 2% of PTT’s stake in Taiwan’s Lotus Pharmaceutical. This transaction coincided with the reclassification of Lotus from a subsidiary to an associate during 4Q25.
Despite group profit growth, standalone PTT earnings contracted quarter-on-quarter in 4Q25 due to weaker contributions from the trading and gas business units. The trading unit’s contribution margin plummeted 47% QoQ to THB 0.09 per liter, mainly reflecting mark-to-market (MTM) losses compared to gains in Q3. The gas segment also reported softer earnings, largely due to weaker Supply and Trading (S&T) on the back of lower average selling prices and reduced industrial demand. Nevertheless, feedstock costs declined by 4% QoQ to $8.3/mmbtu.
PTT Exploration and Production PCL (SET: PTTEP) demonstrated stronger QoQ earnings, supported by an exceptional $92 million gain from its bargain purchase of Algeria’s Touat project.
PTT’s refinery and petrochemical segment, including PTT Global Chemical PCL (SET: PTTGC), Thai Oil PCL (SET: TOP), and IRPC PCL (SET: PCL), posted a combined QoQ earnings decline as a result of increased stock losses.
PTT Oil and Retail Business PCL (SET: OR) experienced a modest drop in quarterly earnings, primarily due to THB 343 million in impairment losses pertaining to its investments in KAMU and Freshket.
Global Power Synergy PCL (SET: GPSC)’s earnings weakened in the quarter, impacted by higher foreign exchange losses.
Reflecting improved forecasts and lower risk assumptions, KGI has raised its 2026 target price for PTT to THB 40 (from THB 37), employing a sum-of-the-parts (SoTP) valuation. The valuation uplift is attributed to a reduced beta for the Gas business (from 1.11 to 0.77), thereby lowering the weighted average cost of capital (WACC), alongside upgraded earnings projections.
KGI now anticipates PTT’s net profit to reach THB 101.3 billion in 2026 and THB 111.4 billion in 2027, representing uplifts of 4% and 6%, respectively. This follows a 12% cut in projected interest expenses to THB 36 billion (2026) and THB 34.4 billion (2027), after 2025 interest costs came in at THB 40.4 billion, down 14% YoY. The brokerage firm remains positive on the announced 2H25 and special dividends, noting they offer a 3.7% yield.
However, risks to the outlook persist, including crude oil price volatility, fluctuations in gross refining margins (GRM), and changing petrochemical spreads.
