Finansia Syrus Securities (FSS) has issued a “Neutral” rating for Thai export stocks following US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a temporary 15% import tariff. While this rate represents an increase from the previous 10% level, it is notably lower than the 19% rate the market had previously anticipated. This temporary measure is scheduled for 150 days, ending in July 2026, after which any extension would require Congressional approval.
The food sector presents a divided landscape. Branded exporters like TU, SAPPE, XO and TKN already began raising prices in the second half of 2025 to reflect the earlier 19% tariff projections. However, OEM manufacturers such as ITC and AAI face more immediate pressure. ITC has been actively supporting customers with their tax burdens, while AAI is struggling with a strong Thai Baht and limited ability to raise prices since their customers are already absorbing the new tariffs.
In the electronics sector, the outlook remains neutral as most customers typically bear the tax costs. DELTA continues to show resilience due to strong demand in the AI sector, which allows customers to absorb higher costs. For HANA and KCE, the 15% rate applies equally to all global competitors, meaning Thai firms do not lose a competitive edge, though they must still contend with specific industry headwinds in non-AI segments and the automotive sector.
A significant shift was noted in the livestock and meat sector, which FSS downgraded from “Positive” to “Neutral”. This change is due to the potential for renewed negotiations regarding US agricultural imports—such as corn, soybeans, and pork—which were previously part of tariff-offset discussions. Conversely, the rubber industry, represented by STA, remains largely insulated as agricultural products currently fall under tax exemptions.
As the 150-day window unfolds, the market remains volatile. Analysts emphasize that the outcome of bilateral negotiations between the Thai government and the US will be the primary driver for stock performance in the near term.
