On March 4, 2026, airline stocks declined across the board due to selling pressure from investor concerns about the outlook for future earnings. The main factors pressuring the sector are:
- Uncertainty over tourist numbers, resulting from the conflict in the Middle East, may impact international travel.
- Cost risk from rising oil prices, which could increase fuel costs and squeeze the profit margins for operators in the sector.
At the time of 11:41 a.m., the share price of Airports of Thailand Public Company Limited (SET: AOT) is trading at THB 46.75, a THB 4.75 or 9.22% decrease, with a total trading value of THB 3,485.92 million.
Meanwhile, the share price of Asia Aviation Public Company Limited (SET: AAV) is trading at THB 1.03, a THB 0.12 or 10.43% decrease, with a total trading value of THB 199.47 million.
The share price of Bangkok Airways Public Company Limited (SET: BA) is trading at THB 13.90, a THB 1.8 or 11.46% decrease, with a total trading value of THB 227.22 million.
The share price of Thai Airways International Public Company Limited (SET: THAI) is trading at THB 5.85, a THB 0.6 or 9.3% decrease, with a total trading value of THB 240.23 million.
Krungsri Securities (KSS) expressed in its analysis a negative view for the overall tourism and airline industry in the short term, even though total tourist numbers have grown slightly, by 1% compared to the same period last year. The week-on-week number, however, has contracted sharply by 23% due to both seasonal factors and the impact of the Middle East conflict.
Especially in the latter part of last week, tourist numbers from the Middle East and Europe shrank by over 60% and 25% respectively. Together, these two regions account for about 35% of all tourists. If the conflict persists, the number of tourists in 2026 could fall short of the target of 35.5 million, or 8% growth year-on-year. The brokerage firm estimated that these effects are causing tourist numbers to drop by an average of around 15,000 people per day.
In the short term, KSS perceives that airline stocks still face high risk and recommends avoiding investment in the sector due to 1) uncertainty of demand from the Middle East situation, and 2) cost risks from rising oil prices. If jet fuel prices are in the range of $89.2–$114.2 per barrel, compared to the previous assumption of $85 per barrel, this would pressure the sector’s performance with about 5–36% downside risk.
AAV faces the highest cost risk, while BA faces the greatest revenue risk due to its customer and route structure. This reflects that fluctuations in both demand and costs remain significant pressures on investments in this group.
Meanwhile, KSS believes that risks from the Middle East situation are only short-term negatives, while the tourism industry remains supported by recovering Chinese tourist numbers. Airport operators such as AOT benefit from the increase in Passenger Service Charges (PSC).
Furthermore, the analyst house remains positive on airline equities with BA as their Top Pick, recommending a “Buy” rating with a target price of THB 25 per share, based on two main factors: the clarity of the U-Tapao airport development project, which will support long-term growth, and an attractive dividend yield expected at around 6% per year.
In the second half of 2025, BA announced a dividend of THB 0.70 per share, representing a dividend yield of about 4.5% (XD sign on March 11, and dividend payment on April 22), reflecting appeal in both growth and shareholder returns.
