Phillip Securities (Thailand) wrote in its analysis that the United States and Israel launched attacks against Iran under ‘Operation Epic Fury’ starting February 28, 2026. The escalation resulted in the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Iran retaliated by firing missiles and drones at Israeli targets, U.S. bases, and neighboring countries, widening the conflict and significantly impacting global oil prices. Notably, Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz since March 3, 2026, leading to disruptions and damage to energy infrastructure across the region.
WTI crude oil (spot) prices closed at $91.33 per barrel on March 6, 2026, reflecting a 38.5% increase compared to pre-war levels on February 27, 2026. This also marked the highest closing price since September 2023.
Thailand is among the countries most affected by the conflict, particularly from the surge in oil prices, due to its heavy reliance on imported fuel. Data from 2025 showed Thailand imported 970,337 barrels of crude oil per day while domestic production was just 161,605 barrels per day. In value terms, imported fuels amounted to 7.6% of nominal GDP in 2025, with crude oil imports alone representing 4.8% of nominal GDP.
Phillip expects that the impact on Thailand’s economy and the SET Index in 2026 will mainly hinge on rising crude oil prices, under the assumption that the price spike is supply-driven (a supply shock in the global crude market caused by reduced Middle Eastern output), not a result of improved global economic activity. The forecast also assumes that elevated oil prices will persist at least through the first half of next year.
In the base-case scenario, where the WTI crude stays below $60-70 per barrel, Thailand’s GDP in 2026 is forecast to grow by 1.8% (as of February 2026), and the SET Index target is set at 1,535, with estimated earnings per share (EPS) at THB 93 and a forward P/E ratio of 16.5x.
This target marks an upward revision, based on improved Thai GDP performance in 4Q25 and increased confidence following the formation of a new government after the February 8, 2026, election, with expectations of stable politics and supportive economic measures.
Given the war and the oil price rally, Phillip Securities recommends two investment strategies:
- Speculative trading in upstream energy, refinery, and shipping stocks.
- Accumulating high-quality dividend stocks that have corrected in recent weeks (the SET Index dropped 7.7% week-on-week ending March 6, 2026), which has made dividend yields attractive, such as banking stocks and those in the SETHD index.
Stock Picks:
- PTTEP: ‘Speculative Buy’ – PTTEP could benefit from higher global oil prices, as its crude sales are linked to these prices. The company continues to invest in expanding production capacity, with sales volume expected to rise by 10% in 2026 to 560 KBOED, mainly from projects in Thailand, Malaysia, and Algeria. Price targets are THB 146.00/150.00, with support levels at THB 137.00/140.00.
- BBL: ‘Accumulate’ – Bangkok Bank announced a second-half 2025 dividend of THB 8 per share, offering a 4.8% yield at the March 6, 2026, closing price. BBL also has the highest loan loss reserve coverage (304%) among peers, well above the group average of 164%. The base price is set at THB 182.00 per share.
