Mr. Pobchai Phatrawit, Equity and Digital Asset Strategist at InnovestX Securities, during the “Kaohoon” program on March 16, 2026, expects the Thai market to move sideways within limited range and with volatility, as the situation in the Middle East remained unclear.
Currently, the United States armed forces is pursuing the quick end to control the war cost, while Iran seeks to drag the conflict on by switching its target from the U.S. and its ally forces to regional economic assets, including the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and use the global economy as a bargaining chip. Additionally, the U.S. has urged ally nations to send warships to the Strait of Hormuz, however, none have yet to respond.
The U.S. Department of War estimated that the war will be concluded within four to six weeks, although the feasibility of such a target remains in question.
Furthermore, there are concerns of supply shortages in oil and oil-derivative products such as petrochemical products of PET plastics, which caused hoarding actions on these critical supplies, further exacerbating supply constraints and raising prices, leading to higher inflation.
Mr. Pobchai forecasted the SET Index to move within the range of 1,385 – 1,420 points today.
He also recommends investors monitor the central banks’ meeting, especially the Federal Reserve meeting on March 17 – 18, which expected to maintain the interest rates, however, investors should focus on whether the Fed would factor the inflation from the Middle East war in the rate decision or not. Additionally, FedWatch Tool has reduced its prediction of the rate cut from two to one or zero rate cut in 2026.
Domestically, Mr. Pobchai highlights the selection of Thailand’s new Prime Minister on March 19, and the Ombudsman filing a complaint to the Constitutional Court regarding the ballot-papers, which have a barcode and QR code, raising concerns about the secrecy of the voting. Should the Court accept the complaint and go through with the investigation, it may affect foreign investors’ confidence in Thailand’s political stability in the short-term.
Mr. Pobchai remarked that the foreign investors have been selling their Thai equities for seven consecutive sessions, including short-selling in derivatives, as investors have adopted a risk-off mode following the war and Thai political uncertainty. He concluded that presently investors are maintaining their wait and see stance, and if the uncertainty has been cleared, the fund inflows may potentially continue, albeit with limited volume compared to the Election Rally period.
He elaborated that the potential fund inflows was weighed by the weakening of Thai baht, the Thai market valuation has reached its highest point despite recent decline, and most listed companies have ex-dividend (XD) date, while some have already paid their dividend, which reduced incentive for investment.
Mr. Pobchai recommends risk-averse investors to hold cash during this period of uncertainty, while investors with appetite for medium or higher risk investment may speculate on upstream energy stocks that has hedged against oil prices risk such as PTTEP, and related stocks such as BANPU, which benefited from higher coal prices, and STA, which benefited from rising rubber prices. For long-term investment, he recommends stocks with narrow exposure to the war such as banking sector (KTB, TISCO, and KKP), ICT sector (ADVANC, TRUE), and consumption sector (BJC, HMPRO), which benefited from post-war consumption recovery.
