Krungsri Securities (KSS) wrote an analysis on AP (Thailand) Public Company Limited’s (SET: AP), highlighting sales of the newly launched condominium project, with AP recently launching the ‘Life Ratchada-Rama 9’ project, which has a total project value of THB 3.6 billion.
So far, the company has achieved sales of approximately THB 800 million, or about 23% of its total value, which is slightly below the initial target of 25-30% for this early launch phase.
Of the units sold, 76% were purchased by Thai buyers and 24% by foreign buyers, with the latter group primarily coming from Myanmar, Taiwan, and China. The relatively moderate take-up rate is attributed to the project being a low-rise, 8-storey building that will be ready for transfer in the fourth quarter of 2027.
This means the down payment period is relatively short, and buyers—mainly those with real demand—may prefer to wait until the project is closer to completion before committing to purchase. Typically, low-rise projects see higher sales upon construction completion, as opposed to high-rise projects, which tend to attract more foreign buyers earlier on.
Quarter-to-date, the accumulated total is expected to exceed THB 8.0 billion. KSS forecasts presales for the first quarter of 2026 at around THB 9.0-10.0 billion, which is considered achievable, though this would represent a year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter decline due to a high base comparison. The full year 2026 presales target stands at THB 49.0 billion, a 5% increase year-on-year.
Krungsri anticipates AP’s net profit for 1Q26 to rise year-on-year, supported by a large backlog of units waiting for transfer, both in low-rise and condominium segments. This backlog stems from numerous projects launched in the fourth quarter of 2025, which will gradually be transferred to buyers.
Currently, AP’s total backlog pending transfer stands at THB 35.9 billion, with an estimated THB 24.8 billion expected to be transferred in 2026. This secures approximately 52% of the company’s target transfer value of THB 47.9 billion for the year, which is a 7% increase year-on-year. For 2026, five new condominium projects with a combined value of THB 11.3 billion are awaiting transfer, with an average sold rate of 68%.
Following these, Krungsri maintains its net profit forecast for 2026 at THB 4.9 billion, representing a 14% increase year-on-year, and its target price for 2026 at THB 11.0 per share. The brokerage maintains a ‘Buy’ recommendation, citing AP’s continued increase in market share as a positive driver for long-term growth.
The current share price is trading at a 2026 PER of 5.5x and is expected to offer an attractive dividend yield of 6-7%. Overall, KSS finds the valuation appealing with the prospect of strong returns.
