Goldman Sachs has revised its oil price projections upward for the second time in under two weeks, responding to extended interruptions in shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and heightened structural vulnerabilities in global oil supply. The investment bank’s latest forecasts reflect both immediate supply challenges and longer-term inventory and capacity issues.
The bank now estimates that crude flows through the key Hormuz shipping lane will remain at only 5% of their typical capacity for a six-week period, followed by a phased recovery lasting about a month. This longer-than-anticipated disruption, combined with few alternatives for spare production capacity, is expected to substantially alter short-term market pricing and supply-demand dynamics.
Accordingly, Goldman Sachs has lifted its Brent oil price expectation for March and April to $110 per barrel, a considerable rise from the previous projection of $98, and notably higher than the bank’s 2025 outlook. The bank’s forecast upgrade extends into subsequent years, with Brent now anticipated to average $85 in 2026, up from $77, and WTI crude expected at $79. The revisions are driven by greater-than-expected commercial inventory drawdowns and a re-evaluation of global spare production capacity as market participants adjust to increased risk.
For the fourth quarter of 2026, Goldman Sachs has also raised its forecast for Brent and WTI to $71 and $67 per barrel, respectively, from previous estimates of $66 and $62, given prospects of prolonged disruption related to ongoing geopolitical tensions.
Looking at the period beyond 2026, the bank projects Brent will average $80 in 2027, but highlights that there is potential for prices to move significantly higher. In an extended scenario where disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz persist, Goldman Sachs indicates that daily Brent prices could surpass the all-time high set in 2008.
