On Friday, the share price of IRPC Public Company Limited (SET: IRPC) at the time of 11:44 a.m. was at THB 1.65, a THB 0.06 or 3.77% increase with a total trading value of THB 265.35 million.
CLSA wrote in a recent analysis that IRPC is poised for a notable financial recovery in 2026.
The firm is expected to post a solid net profit of THB 6.5 billion for the first quarter of 2026, marking a significant rebound from a THB 574 million loss in the previous quarter and a THB 1.2 billion loss a year prior. This turnaround is attributed to healthy Gross Refining Margins (GRM) and stock gains, with modest contributions from its petrochemical segment.
The key operational highlight includes a refinery run rate at 95%, a one percentage point increase quarter-on-quarter, and a market GRM estimated at $10 per barrel, higher than the $8.5 registered in the prior quarter. The improvement is driven mainly by strong crack spreads for diesel and jet fuel seen in March. While spreads for polypropylene (PP) and acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS) are expected to increase, high-density polyethylene (HDPE) might see a slight quarterly softening.
Petrochemical operations are forecast to contribute $2.1 per barrel to the Gross Integrated Margin (GIM), remaining flat QoQ, while the total market GIM, inclusive of the power business, could reach $13 per barrel. With the rising oil price, IRPC is expected to record a THB 5.5 billion stock gain in the first quarter of 2026.
Looking ahead to the second quarter, earnings momentum may slow due to declining ex-refinery prices, but strong petrochemical operations should help offset this impact. IRPC has secured 98% of its crude oil needs for May and 75% for June, minimizing feedstock shortage risks despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainties.
IRPC’s hedging position remains steady, covering about 5% of refinery output, similar to the previous quarter, with limited potential for gains or losses barring significant diesel spread movements. The company is expected to see substantial improvement in its balance sheet, with net debt/EBITDA projected to decrease from 6.6x in 2025 to 3.8x in 2026, and net debt/equity sliding to 0.4x from 0.6x in the previous year.
CLSA maintains its “Outperform” rating on IRPC, with a target price of Bt2.10, reflecting optimism for a strong 2026 recovery and resilience against industry headwinds.
