Kasikorn Securities (KS) wrote that Thailand’s exports in March 2026 surged to a record $35.2 billion, representing an 18.7% year-on-year increase. This growth substantially surpassed market expectations of 11.5% YoY and built on February’s 9.9% YoY growth. Year-to-date, Thai exports have risen by 17.6% compared to the same period last year.
The primary engine behind this robust performance was the manufacturing sector, which saw exports climb by 21% YoY. Notable contributors included strong shipments of phones and electronic components, particularly to the U.S., as well as jewelry exports to India, steel to the U.S., and computers (U.S.), power supplies (U.S.), and machinery (U.S. and Japan).
Notably, the electronics segment continues to benefit from heightened demand for artificial intelligence (AI)-related products, especially from U.S. buyers.
While manufacturing exports soared, agricultural products experienced a contraction of 11% YoY, led by sharp declines in frozen chicken and rubber exports—down 21% YoY, notably to China and the U.S. Despite this, certain agricultural items such as mangosteen and durian, both entering their season, as well as processed chicken (particularly to Japan), managed to achieve export growth.
Additionally, agro-industrial products posted a 14% YoY increase, lifted by fats and oils, sugar, and pet food exports, which saw a notable 4% YoY increase driven by demand in Japan and Australia.
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have weighed on Thailand’s exports to the region, which plummeted by 57% in March. Key destinations like the UAE, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia saw significant declines, with majorly affected product categories including vehicles, jewelry, air conditioners, rubber products, and canned seafood.
According to the Trade Policy and Strategy Office (TPSO), sustained demand for AI-related goods could help the export sector offset potential headwinds from a global slowdown linked to higher energy prices. TPSO has outlined three scenarios for Thailand’s exports in 2026: a best case of +8% YoY growth, a base case of +3% YoY, and a worst case of -3% YoY, all dependent on the evolving global economic climate.
Following these, Kasikorn maintains a positive outlook on DELTA, as the surge in March exports could bolster the company’s first-quarter revenue and earnings. In contrast, rubber exporters such as STA and TEGH continue to face challenges, particularly in major markets like China and the U.S.
Currency movements also impacted trade competitiveness: the average USD/THB rate in 1Q26 was 0.6% stronger YoY but depreciated by 6.2% QoQ, factors which could place mixed pressure on the gross margins of Thai exporters.
