Krungsri Securities expects Apple to report strong 2Q26 earnings, driven largely by the robust reception of the iPhone 17 and significant market share gains in China. Despite a premium valuation currently trading above historical averages, the outlook remains positive supported by upcoming AI integration and a steady growth trajectory heading into the Worldwide Developers Conference.
Krungsri notes that Apple will report 2Q26 earnings (Jan – Mar 2026) on April 30, 2026, or the early morning of May 1, 2026, Thailand time. The market expects average total revenue of $109.69 billion, representing 15% year-on-year (y-y) growth, compared to Apple’s guidance of 13-16% YoY. Earnings per share (EPS) are projected at $1.95, up 18% y-y.
The key driver is the strong reception of the iPhone 17 (revenue from iPhone, iPad, etc., accounts for approximately 73.7% of total revenue), combined with sales from the Asian market. Specifically, China (representing approximately 15% of total revenue) is expected to grow by more than 30% y-y, fueled by Chinese government subsidies. The standard iPhone 17 model met the criteria for the Chinese government’s trade-in subsidy program, boosting sales and reflecting a five-year peak in China market share, based on market share reports from January 2026.
Apple’s FY3Q26 revenue and profit are expected to decelerate from 2Q26 due to normal seasonality as the company has no new product launches. However, y-y growth remains supported by the Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC), Apple’s annual conference held on June 8-12. Apple is expected to launch Siri 2.0, powered by Google’s Gemini AI, alongside iOS 27 and a foldable iPhone. Overall, the market expects revenue of $103 billion (up 9% y-y) and earnings per share (EPS) of $1.7 (up 8% y-y).
Apple is currently a stock with tight valuation or a premium valuation. Based on the current stock price, it is trading at a 2026 price-to-earnings ratio of approximately 31.7x, higher than the 5-year average (at 29.5x) and higher than the industry average of 18.9x. The price/earnings to growth ratio is estimated at approximately 2.2x (a ratio > 1.0 indicates a high valuation).
For investors with low risk tolerance, a “Wait & See” approach is recommended until the 2Q26 earnings report at the end of April. Emphasis should be placed on 3Q26 guidance and the margin outlook, particularly regarding memory cost pressure and the critical issue of Tim Cook’s CEO transition (CEO transition) to the new CEO, Mr. John Ternus. For investors with high risk tolerance, trading (Trading) to speculate on 2Q26 earnings is recommended, with expected y-y growth and a stop-loss point below $258 USD.
According to Bloomberg Consensus, 40 out of 58 analysts recommend “Buy,” with an average target price for AAPL at $302 USD (12.8% upside). For Depositary Receipts (DR) in the Thai stock exchange, investment in AAPL80 is recommended.
