Kiatnakin Phatra Securities (KKPS) has increased its price objective for PTT Global Chemical Public Company Limited (SET: PTTGC) by 12.5% to THB 45.60 per share, up from THB 40.50, and reiterated its BUY rating. The revision reflects stronger-than-anticipated earnings in the first quarter of 2026, a favorable oil price outlook, and improved refining fundamentals, all stemming from ongoing geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran.
The target price upgrade is based on a higher valuation, with the company’s target P/E ratio raised from 10.5x to 13.3x—marking the high end of PTTGC’s historical trading range. This adjustment increased the P/E-derived value to THB 26.7 per share and the DCF value to THB 46 per share, while the P/B value remains unchanged at THB 63.4 per share.
PTTGC’s core performance sharply reversed from a net loss of THB 3.7 billion in 4Q25 to a profit of THB 6.0 billion in 1Q26. This turnaround was driven by significantly higher gross refining margins (GRM) and a surge in aromatics margins, with the positive effects of the US/Iran conflict bolstering spreads. Market GRM jumped from US$7.9/bbl in 4Q25 to US$16.7/bbl in 1Q26, resulting in refining EBITDA rising from THB 1.8 billion to THB 8.9 billion.
Aromatics EBITDA also surged, as margins climbed to US$276/ton, while Olefins EBITDA rose from THB 437 million to THB 2.3 billion due to enhanced ethane feedstock flow and improved spreads. PTTGC expects Olefins to be the key earnings driver in the second quarter, with EBITDA likely to exceed THB 3 billion. The absence of impairment charges and hedging losses is also anticipated to support a strong 2Q26 performance.
KKPS remains optimistic about PTTGC’s valuation and net profit growth outlook, reiterating its BUY recommendation.
