Mr. Pobchai Phatrawit, Equity and Digital Asset Strategist at InnovestX Securities, during the “Kaohoon” program on May 18, 2026, expects the Thai market to move sideways-down this week after positive factors have been mostly priced in.
For today’s outlook, the SET Index is anticipated to decline, with the support level estimated at around 1,505 – 1,495 points or fluctuating near 1,500 points. The resistance level remains limited at 1,520 – 1,525 points, which aligns with the trend across most Asian stock markets that are also declining.
Market participants have started to refocus on persistent risk factors, especially high energy prices, which are fueling inflationary pressure and may affect listed companies’ earnings in 2Q26. Meanwhile, the situation in the Middle East remains uncertain, with both positive and negative factors alternating.
Mr. Pobchai further stated that while the latest US-China summit may have sparked initial optimism in the market, a closer look reveals unresolved issues on key topics such as rare earth minerals and artificial intelligence (AI), as well as China’s role in the Iran situation—particularly with regard to pushing Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The Taiwan issue is also one to watch, as China continues to warn the U.S. against supporting Taiwan’s independence.
Another factor pressuring the market is the rising government bond yield, especially the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond, which surged by 1-2% following U.S. inflation in April accelerating to the highest level in nearly three years. Producer Price Index (PPI) also climbed to a three-year high, reflecting the impact of persistently high oil prices. This has increased the likelihood that the Federal Reserve may reconsider raising the policy rate late this year.
As for 1Q26 corporate earnings already announced, results were about 5% above market expectations, though slightly down from the previous round which exceeded forecasts by around 10%. Preliminary SET-listed company profits stood at about THB 350 billion, representing a 27% year-on-year growth and a robust 56% increase quarter-on-quarter.
However, the key factor to watch is 2Q26 earnings, as the first quarter did not fully reflect the impact of oil prices and energy costs, which will become more evident in the next period. InnovestX believes the negative impact from high energy prices may outweigh the positives for listed companies.
Currently, market profit consensus on Bloomberg now stands at around THB 97 per share, up from about THB 95 per share. InnovestX maintains its forecast at THB 95 per share. Strong 1Q26 results have helped ease concerns over EPS downgrades, which were previously feared to drop to around THB 92 per share earlier this year.
Mr. Pobchai added that even with the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, allowing oil transportation, oil and related product prices are likely to remain high due to ongoing supply-side disruptions in the Middle East, especially for gas, fertilizers, and petrochemicals, which may take two to three years for supply to normalize.
For short-term investment strategy, InnovestX recommends speculating on stocks that benefit from rising bond yields, particularly insurance firms like BLA, which profit from higher bond returns, and upstream energy stocks such as PTTEP, supported by high oil prices.
The securities firm also recommends selective investment in stocks expected to deliver 2Q26 earnings growth, despite the less optimistic market profit outlook, such as ADVANC, AP, GULF, and MINT.
Additionally, defensive-themed stocks are recommended for their resilience to inflation and high energy costs, focusing on essential sectors like telecommunications (TRUE), hospitals (BDMS, BH, BCH), and retail (CPALL, CPAXT, BJC, CPN).
