Kiatnakin Phatra Securities (KKPS) maintains a neutral view on Charoen Pokphand Foods Public Company Limited (SET: CPF), highlighting that the company’s valuation has reached its lowest level.
At THB 19.2 per share—after accounting for the market value of its holdings in CPALL and CPAXT—CPF’s residual equity stands at only THB 0.70 per share or 0.81 times core P/E. While this discount appears attractive, KKPS cites CPF’s high leverage and ongoing operational uncertainty—particularly in China—as major concerns.
Thai swine prices have rebounded to THB 62 per kilogram from their February low of THB 56 per kg, about 10% above the estimated breakeven point. This recovery is mostly attributed to higher feed costs and government-led supply reductions. With further supply cuts unlikely, KKPS sees limited room for additional price recovery in Thailand.
In China, hog prices remain depressed at CNY 10 per kg, approximately 20 – 25% below breakeven. Futures markets have not signaled a recovery, and despite government interventions to manage supply, there remains no credible price floor. Accordingly, CPF recorded a THB 2.6 billion operating loss in China during 1Q26, and KKPS expects continued losses throughout 2026 unless China’s hog prices stabilize.
Vietnam remains CPF’s most promising market, with pork prices at VND 65,000 per kg and benefiting from industry consolidation under supportive government regulations. Still, the positive momentum in Vietnam cannot fully offset earnings pressures from China at CPF’s current earnings mix.
KKPS retains its Neutral rating and a target price of THB 22.2 for CPF.
