On July 1, the SET Index closed at 1,588.23 points, a decrease of 3.01 points, despite intraday highs of 1,600.98. The total trading value amounted to THB 64.07 billion, while foreign investors posted net sales of THB 1.59 billion. Nonetheless, for the year to date, foreign investors remained net buyers, with a total net inflow of THB 25.58 billion.
A survey by the Investment Analysts Association (IAA) of 25 fund managers and analysts reflects a predominantly positive sentiment towards the Thai economy and stock market for the second half of 2026. Analysts highlight government stimulus, a recovery in domestic spending, infrastructure investment, and strong momentum in technology and data center investments as key growth drivers.
Forecasts peg the average crude oil price at $84.80 per barrel for 2026—a substantial increase. If oil prices decrease in 2H26, market prospects may improve further. Thai GDP growth is forecast in the range of 1.5% – 2.7%, with a survey average of 1.93%, higher than the previous forecast of 1.72%.
Key positives cited are robust foreign fund inflows, supported by 92% of respondents, and investment trends in AI and its supply chain at 88%. Easing geopolitical tensions involving the U.S., Iran, and Israel is expected by 80% of respondents to aid Thai markets through capital reallocations.
Risks, however, remain. Analysts point to potential global tightening of quantitative easing (QE) as the most significant risk (68%), followed by U.S. interest rate direction (56%).
Notably, most analysts expect the Bank of Thailand to keep rates at 1% throughout 2026. The market’s average earnings per share (EPS) for listed companies is projected at THB 96.04, up from THB 87.64, with 10.2% EPS growth.
The SET Index is expected to end 3Q26 at 1,608 points, moving within a range of 1,496 – 1,655 points before closing the year at 1,619 points. Analysts favor tourism, commerce, healthcare, banking, finance, and food/beverage sectors, while energy and petrochemicals are less favored due to weaker oil prices. Top stock picks include ADVANC, AOT, BH, GULF, and KBANK. Stocks with excessive valuations and energy/petrochemical names are advised to be avoided.
For international exposure, top depository receipt (DR) picks include AAPL80, GOOG80, MICRON80, and NVDA80.
Regarding technical and fund flow perspectives, Krungsri Securities noted that the 1,600-point level remains a key resistance level. Foreign capital continues to flow, buoyed by brighter economic prospects and easing oil prices, which should lower costs for businesses in 2H26.
Large, liquidity stocks—particularly those in tourism, ICT, and banking—are expected to be favored by foreign investors, with AOT and ADVANC highlighted for potential gain from economic and consumption recovery. For investment, the analyst firm recommends a selective buying strategy, highlighting MTC, DELTA, KBANK, and KTB for their strengths.
LH Securities is also echoing the sentiment on fund inflows, as robust dividend yield from Thai listed companies—especially the banking sector—continue to attract foreign capitals.
Foreign investor appetite is expected to persist, with government stimulus measures seen as ongoing drivers for further inflows and Thai market growth in the latter half of 2026.
