As of 11:36 AM (Bangkok time) on Friday, Brent crude futures were trading near $100.41 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate hovered at about $91.70 a barrel.
Goldman Sachs has warned of potential sharp gains in oil prices if disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz persist. In its latest analysis, the bank projected that Brent may surpass $120 a barrel in the coming quarter, potentially averaging over $100 a barrel through the next year should the situation not stabilize.
The region has experienced heightened tensions as conflict between the United States and Iran intensified. Since these military confrontations began, Brent has advanced around 30% from the low of around $70s, which was observed when it appeared diplomatic efforts were underway.
Goldman’s base case anticipates Brent averaging $80 per barrel in the last quarter of 2026, dropping to roughly $75 next year. This scenario is contingent on a de-escalation in hostilities between the United States and Iran before year’s end. Despite increased military actions by both sides recently, there is some optimism for a possible relaxation of tensions after mediators reportedly proposed a 10-day ceasefire to restart talks.
However, Goldman Sachs points out significant upside risks, noting crude supply from the Strait has fallen about 45% from pre-conflict levels over the past month. In a prolonged disruption scenario, the bank expects Brent could rise above $120 a barrel by the fourth quarter, and maintains that average prices may stay near $100 for 2027 if Persian Gulf production remains constrained until new pipeline capacity becomes available.
President Donald Trump stated on Thursday that the United States will hold Iran accountable for any new attacks by Yemen’s Houthi group following recent incidents in the Red Sea involving Saudi oil tankers. This announcement follows claims by the Houthis that they targeted two Saudi vessels, Encelia and Layla, with drones and missiles, citing enforcement of a maritime blockade.
In response, the U.S. military has continued its campaign against Iranian military assets, targeting maritime and aerial weapon storage and air defense infrastructure. U.S. Central Command indicated its operations sought to further impair Iran’s capacity to threaten commercial shipping.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio disclosed that Iran remains unwilling to agree to terms seen as acceptable by Washington, saying that “the price gets higher every night” for Iranian resistance to a deal. Rubio also noted that he hoped the Houthi attacks would cease, attributing their involvement to Iranian influence.
