Asia Plus Securities expects Gulf Development Public Company Limited (SET: GULF) to report a net profit of approximately THB 11.7 billion for the second quarter of 2026, a 29.1% increase from the previous quarter. The company’s normalized profit is projected at around THB 11.8 billion, rising 26.8% quarter-on-quarter and achieving a new record high for quarterly earnings.
The key driver has been a surge in expected dividend income to approximately THB 2.8 billion, jumping from just THB 26 million in the previous quarter due to the dividend payment from Kasikornbank Public Company Limited (SET: KBANK), in which GULF holds stakes.
Other income is also projected to grow by 204.1% QoQ to around THB 2 billion, mainly from recognizing a gain of about THB 1.8 billion from the sale of a 51% stake in the Pak Lai hydropower plant project.
On the power plant business front, Asia Plus suggests that the performance of independent power producer (IPP) plants will improve from the previous quarter, following an increase in power purchase volume by the government during the summer.
However, operations are still facing pressure from the small power producer (SPP) segment, where profit margins are expected to decline due to rising natural gas costs and a decrease in share of profits from associates, especially for wind power plants that are affected by seasonally weaker wind.
For non-recurring items, the securities firm expects GULF to record a foreign exchange and derivative loss of around THB 57.8 million, down from a THB 210.2 million loss in the previous quarter.
Asia Plus forecasts GULF’s normalized profit for the first half of 2026 will be around THB 21 billion, representing 63.8% of the full-year normalized profit estimate. As a result, the brokerage firm has revised up their net profit forecasts for 2026 and 2027 by 15.3% and 10.1%, setting them at approximately THB 38 billion and THB 41 billion, respectively.
This upward revision is mainly due to the recognition of dividend income from KBANK following an increased stake from 5% to 10%, alongside higher assumptions for interest and other income to better reflect GULF’s current operations.
Under these new estimates, Asia Plus expects GULF’s normalized profit in 2026 to rise by 32.8% year-on-year, reflecting continued strong performance from both energy business and investment income.
Looking ahead to the third quarter of 2026, the analyst firm anticipates a weakening in normalized profit, as dividend income is set to decrease seasonally and overall electricity sales are likely to slow after the high-demand season for IPP plants has passed.
Meanwhile, SPP margins are expected to decline further due to persistently high natural gas costs, even though profit contributions from the Jackson plant in the United States are expected to improve, this will not be sufficient to offset all negative factors.
Accordingly, Asia Plus has raised GULF’s end-2027 target price to THB 80 from THB 78 and maintained a “BUY” recommendation, given the strong outlook for both short- and long-term earnings, as well as the company’s advantage in entering a new round of national infrastructure investments in clean energy power plants and digital industries. Long-term accumulation is recommended.
