Mr. Pobchai Phatrawit, Equity and Digital Asset Strategist at InnovestX Securities, stated on the ‘Kaohoon’ program on August 3, 2026, that the Thai stock market may potentially move sideways-up. He set a support level at around 1,615 points and a resistance level at 1,635 points.
A key supporting factor is the easing tension in the Middle East, following the United States’ indication of a willingness to re-enter negotiations with Iran, as President Donald Trump had previously mentioned the possibility of initiating talks between the two parties.
However, Iran’s initial response remains unclear, with reports suggesting a rejection of the U.S. proposal. Mr. Pobchai views this stance as an assertion to avoid appearing overly conciliatory towards the White House.
Despite the official rejection, there is potential for both sides to begin dialogue, as Trump had suggested. There are also indications of some level of coordination among officials. It remains to be seen whether actual negotiations will take place and in which direction they will evolve.
The hope for talks is easing geopolitical concerns and has caused a marked decline in oil prices—both WTI and Brent. Meanwhile, OPEC+ has resolved to increase oil production quotas for September, leading to an anticipated rise in supply and placing further constraints on a recovery in oil prices.
Given these factors, InnovestX expects the SET Index to have room to move higher today, supported by falling oil prices and the reduction of geopolitical risks.
Nevertheless, the overall Thai bourse remains volatile this week, as many listed companies are set to announce their 2Q26 financial results. According to data compiled by Bloomberg, among roughly 55 Thai listed companies that have already reported, both total sales and profits have exceeded market expectations, with profits coming in nearly 6% above estimates.
This has led to high expectations for 2Q26 results across the market. Any company reporting earnings below expectations could face selling pressure and heightened share price volatility.
Regarding foreign capital flows, Mr. Pobchai believed that the early week selloff in Thai stocks was primarily profit-taking following significant foreign investment in big-caps across the electronics, energy, and banking sector, which drove up prices and valuations considerably.
The return of foreign investors to Thai equities late in the week signals a sector rotation rather than capital outflow, with increased interest in stocks with attractive valuations and low foreign ownership, particularly those with the domestic play theme.
Sectors likely to benefit include retail, hospitals, tourism and hotels, finance, and real estate—many of which have lagged behind market leaders in previous rallies.
Furthermore, InnovestX believes the Thai equity market remains appealing to foreign investors, given the high dividend yields and an improving outlook for the Thai economy in the second half of the year. Consequently, any market weakness can be viewed as an opportunity to accumulate stocks gradually.
As for stocks related to the AI and data center theme, as well as banks, which have rallied significantly, InnovestX maintains a positive long-term outlook. However, short-term valuations are elevated, creating the possibility of a price correction from profit-taking. Investors should wait for prices to ease before entering, and in the meantime consider rotating into value plays or stocks that have not surged as much.
For this week’s investment strategy, InnovestX recommends speculative trading in the anti-oil theme—stocks that benefit from declining oil prices. The securities firm believe oil prices are more likely to trend down, even though Middle East developments could cause temporary spikes if negotiations stall. However, any price rebound is expected to be limited.
Outstanding stocks include airlines such as BA and AAV, which directly benefit from lower fuel costs. For THAI, the analyst house recommends waiting for volatility from the stock unlocking process to pass before considering investment.
Additionally, the retail sector could benefit from lower transport costs, while the finance sector may gain from reduced bond yields, following diminished geopolitical risks.
Another strategy is to select stocks with low foreign ownership but strong earnings prospects, such as BEM, MTC, OR, and TU. InnovestX expects these could attract increased buying if foreigners increase their positions in value plays.
