Kiatnakin Phatra Securities (KKPS) expects Thailand’s retail industry to see a modest improvement in July 2026, with overall same-store sales (SSS) remaining in the negative low single-digit range. Key factors supporting a slight uptick include lower oil prices, which are likely to bolster consumer sentiment, and a gradual recovery led by leisure-related discretionary spending.
KKPS noted that consumer staples are expected to improve slightly, as the government’s co-payment scheme has had a milder impact on modern trade than initially feared. However, construction material retailers continue to face weakness, with SSS projected to remain soft. A slight positive for CRC’s Vietnam operations is the narrowing of the THB-VND exchange rate gap, which should reduce translation pressure, coupled with an improving consumption backdrop in Vietnam.
On a segment basis, hypermarkets such as CPAXT’s Lotus’s and BJC’s Big C are set to continue facing negative low single-digit SSS growth due to ongoing softness in non-food demand and some impact from the co-payment scheme. Traditional retailers, such as CPAXT’s Makro, may see support from the scheme, though this is likely to be offset by weaker performance in Cambodia and softer HoReCa demand due to reduced tourist arrivals.
Meanwhile, smaller grocery formats, including CRC’s Tops supermarkets and CPALL’s convenience stores, are expected to outperform with positive low single-digit SSS growth, supported by increased domestic mobility and a recovery in Chinese tourist numbers.
Discretionary spending is anticipated to improve from June, with a sequential uptick mainly in leisure-related categories like MOSHI and CRC Fashion, as consumer sentiment recovers. Nonetheless, construction material retailers such as GLOBAL and HMPRO are likely to underperform, facing continued negative SSS due to drops in stockpiling, delays in construction, and subdued consumption fundamentals. DOHOME, however, is expected to buck the trend with mid-single-digit SSS growth, benefiting from robust steel demand and a favorable base of comparison.
As geopolitical risks resurface, KKPS continues to favor CPN for its stable rental income, diverse tenant mix, and effective mall management, supporting further market share gains. CPALL is also highlighted for its attractive valuation and limited earnings impact from the co-payment scheme.
