KGI Securities (Thailand) wrote in its analysis that domestic meat prices in Thailand have shown divergent trends over the past two weeks, with swine prices rising 6% to THB 69.5/kg due to stronger demand, while broiler prices have remained stable at THB 43.5/kg.
In contrast, swine prices in China decreased 7% to CNY 10.4/kg after a strong rebound earlier in July, as large-scale farms resumed slaughtering operations. Vietnam’s swine prices also edged down 5% to VND 63,902/kg in June, driven by concerns about rapid capacity expansion amid limited demand recovery.
Feed costs have softened, supported by a 15% decline in domestic corn prices to THB 10.40/kg, attributed to the new harvest season starting in August. Corn prices are expected to continue easing due to seasonal supply and anticipated imports from the U.S. Soybean meal prices edged up 1% to $321.2/ton.
The spreads for broiler and swine improved in July to THB 17/kg (+63% month-on-month) and THB 33.6/kg (+14% month-on-month), respectively, as lower corn prices and higher meat prices provided support. The import soybean meal price averaged THB 16.2/kg, with corn prices averaging THB 12.5/kg in July.
The brokerage anticipates significant improvement in broiler spreads in 3Q26 compared to 2Q26, while swine spreads should remain stable or improve slightly on a quarter-on-quarter basis.
As a result, KGI maintains a positive view on the recovery in chicken prices and margin outlook for 3Q26. GFPT remains the top pick, with an ‘Outperform’ rating and a target price of THB 11.40 per share, and BTG is rated ‘Neutral’ with a target price of THB 20.80.
