According to Finansia Syrus Securities (FSS), BCPG Public Company Limited (SET: BCPG) reported a normalized profit of THB 182 million for 2Q26, reflecting a 71.1% decline quarter-on-quarter but an increase of 72.6% year-on-year. The results were in line with expectations of the brokerage, although they fell slightly short of market consensus.
The sequential decrease was primarily due to seasonally lower electricity sales from the Monsoon wind power plant in Laos and natural gas power plants in the United States, as well as the result of operational shutdowns at the Hamilton power plant for rotor upgrades. While hydropower generation increased due to higher reservoir levels during the rainy season, this only partially offset the decline.
The share of profit from associates stood at THB 461 million, down 52.5% quarter-on-quarter, caused by a notable seasonal weakening and resulting losses from the wind power plant in Laos, in addition to reduced output from the U.S. gas plants due to seasonal factors and plant upgrades. However, on a year-on-year basis, the share of profit rose by 43.1%, driven by higher electricity rates for U.S. gas plants implemented since 3Q25.
Excluding special items—namely, a foreign exchange loss from hedging of THB 27 million in 2Q26 compared to an asset impairment loss of THB 560 million and a foreign exchange loss of THB 134 million in 2Q25—BCPG posted a net profit of THB 155 million for 2Q26. This represented a 78.6% decrease from the previous quarter but a notable improvement from the net loss of THB 651 million in 2Q25.
Looking ahead, Finansia expects BCPG’s net profit in 3Q26 to increase significantly, mainly due to a one-off gain of approximately THB 1.7 billion from the sale of a 25% stake in two Hamilton power plants, a transaction expected to close around the end of 3Q26.
Excluding this item, normalized profit for the period is forecast at approximately THB 600-650 million, up quarter-on-quarter and stable year-on-year, supported by the resumption of normal operations at the Hamilton gas plant and a new electricity tariff or capacity price increase of about 5-10% for the U.S. gas plants. Hydropower operations are also expected to benefit from the high season.
Finansia maintains its full-year 2026 net profit forecast for BCPG at THB 3.26 billion, up 281% year-on-year, mainly due to the expected special gain from the aforementioned asset sale, estimated to be worth about THB 13.6 billion. The company believes the sale will yield a profit approximately 1.6 times its original investment.
As a result, a ‘Buy’ recommendation is maintained, with a target price of THB 8.50 per share based on the sum-of-the-parts valuation method.
