At the end of the morning session on Thursday, the share price of Charoen Pokphand Foods Public Company Limited (SET: CPF) advanced by 3.11% or THB 0.70 to THB 23.20, with a trading value of THB 1.02 billion.
ASL Securities has expressed a positive view on CPF following the recent analyst meeting, assessing that the company’s earnings in the second half of 2026 are likely to expand both on a half-on-half and year-on-year basis. The growth in the latter half of the year is expected to be supported by the recovery in meat prices, particularly swine in Thailand.
Notably, the price of swine is forecast to experience a significant rebound in the fourth quarter of 2026, driven by increased consumer demand during the festive season, as well as a projected decline in domestic supply due to measures controlling the number of breeding sows.
ASL estimates that the average price of swine in Thailand in the second half of 2026 will increase by 23% compared to the first half, reaching approximately THB 75 per kilogram. Meanwhile, prices in China are also projected to have already bottomed out, as the oversupply situation has begun to ease.
The current number of breeding sows in China stands at around 37.5 million, a level close to the target set by China’s authorities. CPF’s management expects that swine prices in China could recover to around RMB 12-13 per kilogram, compared to RMB 10.1 per kilogram recorded in the second quarter of 2026.
On an annual basis, growth is predicted to be supported by the easing of the oversupply situation in the pork market, as well as a favorable outlook for chicken meat exports to Europe, which are expected to expand by 8-9%.
As a result, ASL maintains a ‘Buy’ recommendation on CPF, setting a target price for 2027 at THB 24.10 per share, based on a P/E ratio of 9.2x, which is close to the 5-year historical average of 8.77x. The brokerage also forecasts a dividend yield of 4% for 2026.
Additionally, the company is expected to benefit from increased sales, bolstered by economic stimulus measures under the ‘Thai Chuay Thai Plus’ program.
With respect to interim dividends, CPF has declared an interim dividend payout of THB 0.45 per share, with the ex-dividend (XD) date set for August 31, 2026, and the payment scheduled for September 11, 2026, representing a dividend yield of approximately 2%.
