Mr. Pobchai Phatrawit, Equity and Digital Asset Strategist at InnovestX Securities, stated on the ‘Kaohoon’ program on August 31, 2026, that the Thai stock market over the past week received positive factors from several areas. This included 2Q26 earnings results that came in better than expected, leading to upward revisions of market profit forecasts. Currently, the consensus estimates the market’s earnings per share for 2026 at THB 109.97, and for 2027 at approximately THB 115.50 per share.
Additionally, the recent Thailand Focus event attracted significant interest from foreign investors, with signs that many are interested in returning to invest in Thailand. However, the Thai benchmark has not fully reacted to these positive factors as it had previously risen to price in these positive expectations to some extent. Meanwhile, foreign fund flows have not yet clearly returned to the Thai market.
During the past week, foreign investors continued to be net sellers of Thai stocks. This is consistent with several regional stock bourses, including the Philippines, Malaysia, and South Korea, reflecting a partial capital outflow from Asia. This capital may be shifting back to Wall Street, particularly into large technology stocks, following better-than-expected earnings and business outlooks from NVIDIA. Some funds have also flowed into other assets such as gold and cryptocurrencies.
For today’s Thai stock market outlook, InnovestX expects the SET Index to move sideways-down, trading within a support level of 1,575 points and a resistance level of 1,590 points.
The main pressure comes from the statements of the Federal Reserve Chair at the Jackson Hole symposium, which delivered a clearer hawkish stance than the market expected. Consequently, investors have increased the weight of the possibility that the Fed might raise policy rates at its September meeting.
Another factor is the Middle East situation, as tension returned after the U.S. attacked Iranian rocket launch sites while Iran retaliated, driving oil prices higher. Combined with fund flows that do not yet support the Thai bourse, the index is projected to swing weaker in the short term.
For the weekly outlook, the SET Index is expected to trend sideways, said the analyst, while recommending investors to monitor U.S. labour market figures, specifically private-sector employment in the middle of the week and non-farm payrolls at the end of the week. These numbers are crucial for assessing the Fed’s interest rate direction; a stronger-than-expected labor report will increase the chances of a September rate hike, whereas a weak report could help alleviate those concerns.
Regarding domestic factors, there are no significant new factors supporting the market this week following the end of the earnings season. The mobile Cabinet meeting in the Southern region is expected to focus on local relief measures, while other economic stimulus measures, such as tourism promotion and energy plans, may have to wait for monitoring in the following week.
For investment strategy, InnovestX recommends a “Selective Buy” approach by choosing stocks with individual positive factors across three main themes:
1. Refinery Group: Supported by healthy refining margins; top picks are TOP, BCP, and SPRC.
2. US Dollar Strength & Thai Baht Weakness Beneficiaries: Particularly in exports and electronic components; HANA and KCE are chosen as top picks. Meanwhile, DELTA‘s price has dropped significantly, offering a potential window for speculative trading.
3. Rising Bond Yield Beneficiaries: This includes banking and insurance sectors. In the banking sector, TTB and BBL are chosen, while BLA is the top pick in the insurance sector for investing during market volatility.
