Mr. Thakrit Chatcherdsak, Assistant Director of Krungsri Capital Securities’ Research Department, stated in the “Kaohoon” program on September 1, 2026, that the Thai stock market is expected to potentially move sideways-up and fluctuate within a narrow range close to 1,600 points. The banking, electronics and energy sectors were anticipated to be the primary groups supporting the market.
Regarding the conflict between the United States and Iran, although both sides have resumed the use of military force, the latest situation has not significantly escalated tensions. This is reflected in crude oil prices, which continue to hover around $90 per barrel and have not reached new highs, leading KSS to maintain its view that the war situation has likely passed its peak.
Meanwhile, for key catalysts during the remainder of the week, the market will return to focusing on U.S. economic data, particularly the Non-farm Payrolls figure on Friday, as well as the manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) of several countries. This will be critical data for assessing the economic direction and monetary policy of the U.S.
For the electronics sector, there are supporting factors from South Korea’s export figures during the first 20 days of the month, which expanded by 68.7%—better than market expectations and accelerating from the previous month. The chip and computer segments grew at a level of approximately 100%, reflecting that the momentum of the AI CAPEX Cycle remains on an upward trajectory. This provides positive sentiment for stocks connected to the electronics supply chain in Asia, including Thai electronics stocks.
Regarding the direction of foreign fund flows, after foreign investors continuously bought regional stocks during May-July, in August they returned to net selling Thai stocks by approximately $746 million. This selling pressure did not occur only in Thailand but was in the same direction as several markets in Southeast Asia, including the Philippines, Malaysia, and Vietnam.
KSS assesses that in September, a significant return of foreign net buying should not yet be expected as seen previously. This is because oil prices remain at high levels, which is a negative factor for Thailand as an oil-importing nation. Additionally, there is domestic political uncertainty that must be monitored. Consequently, fund flow is likely to move in a pattern of alternating buying and selling instead.
In this regard, the political issues that foreign investors prioritize do not only concern just the political uncertainty itself, but also include the continuity in pushing forward economic stimulus measures and future government investment projects. If policy implementation is delayed, it could limit the upside of stocks that rely on government investment and public spending.
For short-term strategies, KSS recommends focusing on three main sectors including the banking, electronics, and energy sector. For the energy sector—especially refineries which still benefit from oil prices and energy security issues—SPRC and TOP were selected as attractive stocks.
Additionally, there is a positive factor from the potential regulatory relaxation on diesel exports, which is likely to generate positive sentiment for refinery stocks. KSS estimates that BCP is the most direct beneficiary, while other refinery stocks have a chance to receive support in the same direction.
