Finansia Highlights Foreign Inflows as Key Support for Thai Bourse Ahead of Fed Rate Decision

Mr. Kantara Ladawan na Ayutthaya, Executive Director of Finansia Syrus Securities, stated in the “Kaohoon” program on September 4, 2026, that the overall Thai stock market during this period continues to be primarily driven by foreign fund inflows. The fact that foreign investors returned to a net buying position in the market yesterday, totaling nearly THB 2 billion, is considered a positive signal confirming that foreign capital has not yet flowed out of the Thai market.

Although the Thai benchmark faced selling pressure from retail investors during the day, the return of foreign investors helped build confidence that the SET Index still has an opportunity to move forward. However, the short-term market trend is expected to move sideways as investors await clarity regarding the Federal Reserve’s interest rate direction.

Regarding the outstanding buying force through NVDR accounts in BDMS, Mr. Kantara believed that this reflects investors’ returning interest in hospital stocks, following a period where many hospital stock prices lagged behind the broader market.

FSS has set a target price for BDMS at THB 28.75, anticipating that its 3Q26 earnings momentum is likely to accelerate. With substantial upside potential remaining, the stock has returned to being highly attractive and has received a “Buy” recommendation. Additionally, other hospital stocks like BH also remain highlighted as top picks for September by FSS.

As for the overall market outlook leading up to the Fed meeting in mid-September, Mr. Kantara expects the Thai bourse to move sideways within a range because the market is assigning similar weight to the probabilities of either a rate hike or a rate hold, making investors hesitant to take a clear direction.

Therefore, U.S. economic data, particularly non-farm payrolls, will be crucial for the market’s direction. If the economic data does not appear overly hot, it could reduce pressure on the Fed to raise policy rates, which would be positive for risk assets.

For the current investment strategy, FSS recommends a “Selective Buy” approach, focusing on stocks whose prices have declined due to short-term factors but whose business fundamentals remain unchanged. An example is GULF, whose stock price has been pressured by issues surrounding data centers. However, FSS views that these factors have not significantly impacted the company’s fundamentals, making any price pullbacks to support levels a good opportunity for gradual accumulation.

Similarly, ADVANC share price may be pressured by concerns over its 3Q26 earnings outlook and issues related to data centers. FSS assesses that these concerns primarily affect short-term market sentiment and the stock price rather than its long-term fundamentals.

In the banking sector, Mr. Kantara maintains a positive outlook, noting that BBL and KBANK remain highly compelling stocks with potential to continue performing well.

For the retail sector, the key factor to watch is the government’s upcoming consumption stimulation measures. If there are measures such as a “60:40” style co-payment scheme or a new round of purchasing power stimulus in 4Q26, it would serve as a major driver for consumer spending and boost the earnings of retail stocks.

Regarding the SET Index target of 1,710 points, Mr. Kantara pointed out that this is the target for the year 2027. In the near term, if the index is to rise above 1,600 points, new positive catalysts will be needed, particularly clarity from the Fed on its rate path.

Meanwhile, if the market rebounds strongly today by about 15-16 points (around 1%), short-term investors might consider locking in some profits. This is because selling pressure is likely to emerge after a quick rise, especially since most of the market prefers to wait for clarity from the mid-September Fed meeting before increasing investment weights again.