On Monday, the share price of Advanced Info Service Public Company Limited (SET: ADVANC) at the time of 3:55 p.m. was at THB 355, a THB 9 or 2.6% increase with a total trading value of THB 2.02 billion.
Meanwhile, the share price of True Corporation Public Company Limited (SET: TRUE) was at THB 13.20, a THB 0.20 or 1.54% increase with a total trading value of THB 587.01 million.
CGS International Securities (Thailand) (CGSI) noted in its analysis that competition in the postpaid mobile market remains reasonable. Operators are not aggressively competing to win new customers or rapidly expand their market share.
Postpaid packages for both AIS (operated by ADVANC) and TRUE start at THB 399 per number per month. This starting price is approximately 3.6% to 8.1% lower than the average revenue per user (ARPU) of postpaid customers in 2Q26, with both operators offering comparable internet data quotas.
However, AIS has adopted a more aggressive promotional stance, offering unlimited data packages with maximum speeds of 1Gbps starting at THB 1,199 per month. Additionally, both AIS and TRUE offer monthly bundled packages that combine mobile service, broadband internet, and entertainment services.
CGSI believes that both operators are prioritizing monthly postpaid packages priced in the THB 499 – 899 range, as this segment has the greatest potential to drive postpaid ARPU growth.
In the prepaid market, AIS’s 30-day packages start at THB 280 Baht, whereas TRUE offers starting prices from just THB 150. This suggests that TRUE is continuing to expand its new customer base by targeting students and lower-income segments.
This prepaid strategy aligns with TRUE’s prepaid ARPU in 2Q26, which was THB 130—about 16% lower than AIS’s prepaid ARPU of THB 154. Despite this, both operators are avoiding aggressive price competition. Their internet quotas are highly similar, with the main differentiation occurring in the connection speeds of their THB 300 packages.
CGSI noted that AIS and TRUE are not solely focusing on subscriber acquisition; they are also prioritizing the preservation of service value for prepaid customers, especially within the THB 300 – 399 package tier. This range offers strong opportunities for upselling higher-value services to bolster ARPU growth.
In the broadband market, CGSI stated that AIS and TRUE packages hold a competitive advantage over National Telecom Public Company Limited (NT). This edge stems from the private operators’ ability to offer bundled packages—comprising mobile, broadband internet, and entertainment—starting at around THB 499 – 500 per number per month, which positions them to capture market share from smaller providers.
CGSI maintains an “Overweight” rating for the Thai telecommunications sector. The analyst projects sector EBITDA to grow during the years 2026 – 2028, driven by falling costs and rising service revenues.
TRUE has been selected as the sector’s “Top Pick”. Its earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to grow strongly by 8 – 17% annually from 2026 – 2028, outperforming ADVANC’s projected annual growth of 0.4–8.6%. This outperformance is supported by reduced network expenses, cost controls, and more active capital management.
Key downside risks for the sector include a slowdown in private consumption and network outages. Conversely, positive catalysts include rising mobile data usage (which will drive blended ARPU growth), cost reductions, and net subscriber additions for mobile and broadband services that could exceed expectations.
