Mr. Kantara Ladawan na Ayutthaya, Executive Director of Finansia Syrus Securities, stated in the “Kaohoon” program on September 11, 2026, that the Thai stock market is likely to move in line with declining overseas markets. The primary pressuring factors stem from rapidly rising oil prices, combined with inflation concerns and the policy rate trajectory of the Federal Reserve.
Oil prices, which have climbed to around $107 – $108 per barrel, still have the potential to test the $115 mark. Meanwhile, the market is closely watching U.S. consumer inflation figures following higher producer prices, which could pass through to consumers and heighten pressure on the Fed at the monetary policy meeting on September 17.
Currently, the market assigns roughly a 70% probability to a Fed rate hike at this meeting, up from 50 – 60% previously. Consequently, global stock markets remain in an overhang state until the meeting outcome is announced. Mr. Kantara noted that clarity following the meeting will make it easier for investors to adjust their strategies compared to operating under market uncertainty.
For the Thai stock market, key support is viewed near 1,605 points. If the index breaches 1,600 points—a key support level—the upward trend previously expected to test 1,630 points may be delayed, requiring the market to accumulate momentum before starting a new cycle.
U.S. Treasury yields remain elevated, with the 2-year Bond Yield at around 4.58% and the 10-year yield at around 4.96%. As a result, investment strategies during this period should focus on a “defensive” stance rather than chasing prices.
Mr. Kantara indicated that stocks suitable for a gradual defensive position include PTTEP, which benefits from higher oil prices, as well as KBANK and ADVANC. While many companies in other sectors possess strong fundamentals, investors should delay new purchases until after the Fed meeting, particularly avoiding the finance and electronics sectors in the short term.
Regarding banking stocks, recent movement reflects defensive buying, indicating continued investor confidence in the sector’s outlook; however, gradual accumulation on dips is recommended over aggressive buying.
Nevertheless, domestic fundamentals show positive signals, including export trends, private investment, and economic stimulus and tourism measures, which may partially offset negative external factors.
Should the Fed raise rates, foreign capital outflows from the Thai stock market could occur, but they are expected to be moderate since a portion of capital has already exited and the Thai economy is improving.
On political factors, Mr. Kantara identified government stability as a crucial variable for the Thai market, given that policy continuity directly impacts private sector confidence and investment decisions. A significant decline in government stability could become a pressuring factor on the market.
Ahead of the September 17 Fed meeting, investors are advised to pause new stock purchases and focus on defensive positions in stocks with strong fundamental backing. Investors should closely monitor two core factors—the Fed meeting and oil price movements—before re-increasing investment weights once greater clarity emerges.
