Mr. Chaiyot Jiwangkul, Assistant Director of Securities Analysis at Krungsri Securities (KSS), during the “Kaohoon” program on September 16, 2026, stated that the overall Thai stock market picture recently faced continuous pressure, causing the SET Index momentum to weaken. However, when considering individual industry sectors, the main pressure in this round came from DELTA rather than the broader market.
DELTA dropped nearly THB 20 over the past 2 days after the market grew concerned over the major shareholder issuing exchangeable bonds convertible into shares, with DELTA stock as the underlying asset. This had a significant impact on the index as DELTA carries a high weight in the Thai benchmark.
Meanwhile, stocks in other sectors, such as commercial banks, hospitals, petrochemicals, and refineries, still remained relatively strong, with some sectors able to adjust upward, reflecting that the weakness in the index did not stem from selling pressure spread across the entire market.
KSS estimated that if the impact from DELTA were excluded, the Thai bourse’s movement on the previous day might still have been positive by around 6 – 7 points, even though the total index fell by more than 10 points.
However, a key factor to monitor is foreign capital flows, which slowed down from the previous period after investors returned to worrying about U.S. inflation, rising U.S. Treasury yields, and the possibility that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at the ongoing meeting. The market assigns a probability of over 90% to this scenario and expects interest rates might increase from 3.75% to 4.00%.
In addition, conflict in the Middle East represents another risk factor after Saudi Arabian oil transportation routes were affected by attacks, resulting in a sharp rise in crude oil prices and creating concerns that inflation in the coming period could accelerate again, which acts as a pressing factor on risky asset investments globally rather than occurring solely in the Thai market.
For short-term trends, KSS expects the Thai stock market to see a technical rebound after the Fed’s resolution on the policy rates, provided the rate hike aligns with market expectations, as asset prices have already priced in such expectations to a certain extent. Meanwhile, pressure from DELTA following the sharp price decline over the past 2 days should have reflected some of the concerns as well.
However, an issue more critical than this rate hike is the dot plot and interest rate direction signals over the next 3 – 4 quarters. If the Fed continues to signal potential additional rate hikes, it will reflect ongoing concerns over high inflation and may keep any rebound in the Thai stock market within a limited range.
As for commercial bank stocks, KSS views that they remain attractive to foreign investors due to high dividend yields, while a rising interest rate environment is likely to support net interest margins (NIM), making it possible for foreign capital to rotate from some sectors into the banking sector.
Regarding the power plant sector, KSS views PDP 2026 as a positive factor in the medium-to-long term because the plan contains a large number of new projects and power generation capacities, which will create opportunities to increase capacity, revenue, and profit for operators in the future. However, in the short term, caution is still required regarding pressure from high natural gas costs, particularly for small power producers (SPPs).
For the renewable energy sector, the analyst also expects it to benefit from the PDP 2026 direction as well, holding an advantage by not being directly impacted by gas prices. Nevertheless, investment conditions, feed-in-tariff rates, and government support measures must still be monitored, as they directly affect project returns and investment attractiveness.
For investment strategies while awaiting clarity from the Fed, KSS recommends focusing on defensive stocks, particularly the hospital group, where Q3 performance trends have a chance to improve due to the high season bringing an influx of patients, including an increase in foreign patients from the Middle East.
The brokerage selects BDMS as a top pick, expecting Q3 profit of around THB 4.5 billion with a target price of THB 25, and BCH, where Q3 performance is expected to grow by approximately 6 – 7% with a target price of THB 12.
