On Friday, the share price of TMBThanachart Bank Public Company Limited (SET: TTB) closed the early session at THB 3.16, a THB 0.08 or 2.6% increase with a total trading value of THB 1,313 million.
Kiatnakin Phatra Securities (KKPS) has reiterated its “Buy” recommendation on TTB and raised its target price to THB 3.40, citing a stronger dividend outlook and a gradual shift toward more sustainable earnings drivers.
The revised target reflects TTB’s strong interim dividend and KKPS’ higher payout assumption for the 2026 final dividend, increased from 60% to 65%. The brokerage also raised its normalized payout assumption from 70% to 75% starting in 2028 and lifted its 2026 earnings-per-share forecast to THB 0.25 from THB 0.24, reflecting higher projected net income.
KKPS sees TTB’s investment narrative gradually moving beyond tax benefits and share buybacks toward higher recurring dividends and fee-income growth.
The brokerage estimates that TTB could distribute its remaining THB 14 billion capital-return budget through special dividends of approximately THB 7 billion annually in 2027 – 28, while maintaining a Tier 1 capital ratio comfortably above 16%.
KKPS’ analysis also suggested that the bank could sustain a payout ratio of up to 95%, even after accounting for the THB 20 billion share buyback and remaining THB 14 billion allocation. That is well above the broker’s normalized 75% assumption. Notably, potential special dividends remain excluded from its forecasts.
On fee income, KKPS highlighted TTB’s expanded wealth-management capabilities through partnerships, including DBS Private Bank for private banking and Webull for offshore investing through the TTB touch app. The approach leverages the bank’s customer base and digital platform without requiring every capability to be developed in-house.
KKPS’ fund-level analysis also showed Eastspring AM’s net asset value growing 5% quarter-to-date, driven by 7% growth in investment units.
Although TTB’s tax benefits expire in the second quarter of 2027, KKPS expects a relatively smooth transition in reported EPS. Supporting factors include a 10% reduction in share count, net interest margin expansion, higher fees, lower provisions and efficiency gains.
