Yuanta Securities (Thailand) wrote that Bangkok Commercial Asset Management Public Company Limited (SET: BAM) held an analyst meeting on Monday to provide an update on its business performance and outlook. Management indicated that operations have started to accelerate, with an improving outlook for 3Q26.
Cash collection performance had improved quarter-on-quarter, as some debtors who previously requested payment deferrals in 2Q26 have resumed payments. Additionally, BAM’s asset sales benefited from increased promotional activities. The company also acquired approximately THB 10 billion in non-performing loans from SCB, which will begin to be recognized as income in 3Q26. Since most of these debtors are relatively new delinquents, BAM expects restructuring negotiations to be manageable.
Management also highlighted that competition in the bank NPL auction market has declined, particularly for secured NPLs, as several key competitors have reduced their purchases or are facing liquidity constraints. This has enabled BAM to negotiate better terms, reducing acquisition costs for secured NPLs from around 23-25% of debt value to only 14-20%. This is expected to reduce long-term provisioning risk, and newly acquired NPL portfolios stand a strong chance of contributing higher profits to BAM.
Progress has also been made in joint venture asset management companies. BAM expects to establish two new JVAMCs in November 2026, and another in early 2027, increasing the total number to five (from two currently, partnered with GSB and KBANK). This development will help secure a sustained supply of high-value secured NPLs, as partner banks will first offer NPLs above THB 300 million to the JVAMCs.
Financial support from low-interest loans means there are no concerns regarding capital for expanding the NPL base. This structure is also expected to support BAM’s long-term ROE growth, as these assets are off-balance sheet.
For 3Q26, performance is forecast to grow strongly year-on-year, rebounding from a low base in 3Q25, which had been impacted by higher provisioning. Provisioning is expected to decline, reflecting a change in the method for debtors with transferred asset repayments. Quarter-on-quarter growth will be supported by higher interest income from restructured debtors and lower provisions.
Profits for 4Q26 are expected to rise further, benefiting from the high seasonality of the business. For 2026, net profit is forecast at THB 1.65 billion, down 8.7% year-on-year from a high base in 2025, but expected to rebound by 6.7% year-on-year in 2027.
Looking ahead, BAM’s long-term ROE is expected to accelerate, with notable growth anticipated in the second half of 2026, both year-on-year and half-on-half. Despite these improvements, the current share price remains a laggard, trading at a low 0.5x 2026 PBV, with 30.4% upside to the 2027 fair value target of THB 9.00 per share. The company is also expected to offer a dividend yield of 6.6%, while the brokerage reiterates a ‘Buy’ recommendation.
