Mr. Koraphat Vorachet, Assistant Director and Division Head of Research at Krungsri Securities (KSS), said in the “Kaohoon” program on September 10, 2026, that short-term risk assets face ongoing pressure from rising U.S. Treasury yields and crude oil prices returning above $100 per barrel, driven by stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data and persistent Middle East uncertainty.
An accelerating U.S. Purchasing Managers’ Index signals resilient investment, particularly in technology and artificial intelligence. However, robust growth could intensify second-round inflation concerns, keeping Federal Reserve policy tight and pushing the 10-year Treasury yield above 5%.
Mr. Koraphat said current yields were not yet at severe alarm levels, partly reflecting confidence in economic growth. Nevertheless, long-term yields accelerating beyond 5.5% could raise funding costs and disrupt technology companies’ and hyperscalers’ capital expenditure. If cash flows or returns lag borrowing costs, even a partial investment slowdown could weaken the broader economic cycle.
With crude trading around $102 a barrel, developments in Iran remain critical. A prolonged conflict lifting prices to $120 – $130 would significantly pressure global growth and inflation, particularly in major oil-importing economies such as China.
Mr. Koraphat sees greater scope for easing U.S.-China trade tensions, potentially through an extended tariff truce, than for resolving competition in technology, AI and rare earths. Iranian de-escalation or smoother oil transportation could bring crude below $100, easing inflation concerns and allowing yields to cool.
KSS favors IRPC, PTTGC and IVL as potential market outperformers that could cushion the SET Index. While elevated oil prices support upstream energy stocks, rapid volatility makes them more suitable for short-term trading. Refinery stocks have additional fundamental support from tight refined product supply, as countries prioritize energy security, helping sustain refining margins.
Commercial banks also remain attractive, supported by steady capital inflows and potential credit demand from a new investment cycle. Mr. Koraphat highlighted KBANK.
He expects a zigzag recovery pattern for the Thai benchmark, with 1,597 points as critical support. A break below that level could warrant reducing equity allocation by 10 – 20% to increase liquidity, rather than exiting entirely.
Mr. Koraphat remarked that DELTA may initially weaken, although strong U.S. technology investment data and potential passive buying could limit selling pressure. KSS estimates SET50 weighting adjustments arising from intra-quarter price movements could attract approximately THB 2 billion into DELTA toward month-end.
KSS maintains a “Buy for Investment” stance on themes linked to PDP 2026, Direct PPA and data centers. Improving regulatory clarity and government support for energy infrastructure, community solar and solar rooftop projects could create opportunities across power producers.
Mr. Koraphat said suitable infrastructure, energy systems and regulations could help Thailand become an ASEAN data center hub, attracting electronics, robotics and AI businesses. Banks could benefit early through corporate financing as private investment and foreign direct investment accelerate.
However, sustained progress depends on policy continuity, administrative stability and timely implementation of projects and regulations—key conditions for investor confidence and medium- to long-term equity market support.
