Citi has reiterated its Buy rating on i-Tail Corporation (SET: ITC), with a target price of Bt22, despite expectations for soft near-term profit growth. The broker sees resilient sales momentum and a potential M&A announcement as key factors supporting the investment case.
For 3Q26E, Citi expects i-Tail to report muted core earnings, down 2% year-on-year but up 12% quarter-on-quarter. The annual decline is projected to reflect higher freight expenses and a one-off advisory fee linked to M&A transactions.
Revenue performance is expected to remain firm, with sales forecast to rise 16% year-on-year, mainly driven by stronger volume. Citi also expects gross profit margin to improve sequentially after price adjustments, although the pace of recovery is seen as slower than previously anticipated.
Looking into 4Q26, Citi expects sales momentum to stay solid, supported by management’s view that demand remains resilient in the premium and mid-price product segments. However, freight costs are expected to remain a drag on earnings in the short term.
Citi identified a possible M&A announcement, expected to take place within 2026, as the main catalyst for the stock. The broker also pointed to projected 12% EPS growth in 2027E, an attractive dividend yield of 6%, and what it views as undemanding valuation, with ITC trading at 13 times PE, or 0.75 standard deviation below its historical average.
