Kiatnakin Phatra Securities (KKPS) anticipates a strong earnings rebound for Bangkok Chain Hospital Public Company Limited (SET: BCH) after several years of consensus earnings downgrades. A clear turnaround is predicted in 2H26, driven by three key catalysts: a surge in Middle East patient revenues, a stabilization in Cambodian patient revenue, and strong growth in Thai patient and Social Security Office segments.
KKPS expects BCH’s core profit growth to swing from a 14% year-on-year decrease in the first half of 2026 to 10% year-on-year growth in the third quarter and 20% year-on-year in the fourth quarter. This improvement is underpinned by Middle East patient revenues, which are forecast to grow 50-70% year-on-year in 2H26, notably led by 185% and 99% year-on-year jumps from the UAE and Qatar in 2Q26, respectively.
Additionally, Cambodian patient revenue is expected to recover, while Thai patient volume should benefit from a recent influenza outbreak and a rebound in SSO revenue, liberated from last year’s THB 53 million revenue reversal.
Further upside could stem from a scheduled SSO payment rate hike, effective January 2027. KKPS analysis indicates potential 5-19% profit upside for 2027, depending on the magnitude of the rate adjustment. Additionally, BCH’s ongoing M&A activity—most recently its acquisition of Rajavej Ubonratchathani (to be rebranded as KIH Ubon Ratchathani)—is set to boost revenue further.
Management is targeting hospital revenue to grow from THB 188 million in 2024 to THB 250 million by 2027, while also eyeing another hospital acquisition, which could add THB 40-60 million in profits if the new asset achieves a 5-7% net margin.
In light of the improving outlook, KKPS has raised BCH’s 2027-28 profit forecasts by 2-3% and moved its DCF valuation base to 2027, raising the target price from THB 13.00 to THB 15.00 per share. The brokerage reiterates a ‘Buy’ rating with the stock trading at an attractive 20x 2027 P/E.
There is additional upside risk to the 2027 consensus profit estimate of THB 1.38 billion should the SSO hike materialize, potentially pushing profit to THB 1.5-1.7 billion. However, even if earnings underwhelm, BCH’s 4-6% dividend yield is anticipated to offer downside support.
