JPMorgan has downgraded Thai Union Group Public Company Limited (SET: TU) to Underweight from Overweight, warning that the company’s earnings momentum could weaken as cost pressures return. The brokerage also reduced its sum-of-the-parts-based target price to THB 11.00, down from THB 15.00.
The share price of TU dropped 4.5% in early morning on Friday to THB 12.70 per share.
The downgrade follows a strong share-price run, with TU outperforming the SET Index by 15% over the past three months. JPMorgan attributed the recent strength to delayed price increases and reduced concerns over tariffs, which helped push the company’s gross profit margin to a record level.
However, the brokerage said the outlook is becoming less favorable as two major cost items move sharply higher. Tuna prices climbed above $2,100 per ton in August 2026, representing a 70% year-on-year increase, while Transpacific freight rates have also risen significantly, surpassing levels seen during the Red Sea crisis.
JPMorgan noted that previous periods of high tuna prices have typically coincided with margin troughs for Thai Union. At the same time, elevated shipping costs have historically weighed on selling, general and administrative expenses, as well as working capital.
Reflecting these pressures, JPMorgan cut its earnings forecasts for Thai Union by 17–19% for 2026–2027, citing a weaker earnings outlook despite the stock’s recent outperformance.
