InnovestX Securities (INVX) maintained its Thai GDP growth forecasts at 2.0% for both 2026 and 2027, expecting the economic damage from Bangkok’s late-September floods to be largely offset by the second phase of the Thai Chuay Thai Plus stimulus program.
Bangkok and surrounding provinces recorded cumulative rainfall of 300 millimeters, triggering flash floods. INVX noted that the flooding resulted from local rainfall rather than water flowing from northern Thailand, as occurred in the 2011 great flood.
Under its base case, which assumes floodwaters recede within one to two weeks, INVX estimates a loss of approximately THB 21 billion to the 2026 economy, reducing GDP growth by 0.11 percentage point.
The damage is expected to be concentrated in the third quarter at approximately THB 19.1 billion. The fourth-quarter impact should narrow to around THB 1.8 billion as catch-up activity and repair spending support recovery.
The tourism impact is estimated at approximately 160,000 visitors in October, equivalent to just 0.5% of annual arrivals. INVX therefore retained its full-year forecast of 33 million tourists.
Thai Chuay Thai Plus Phase 2, with a budget ceiling of THB42,690.65 million, is expected to add approximately THB 15.6 billion to GDP, lifting growth by 0.08 percentage point.
This would largely offset the flood-related losses, leaving a net economic impact of approximately THB 5.3 billion, or a 0.03-percentage-point reduction in growth.
INVX lowered its third-quarter 2026 GDP growth forecast from 2.1% to 1.7%, while raising its fourth-quarter projection from 1.1% to 1.4%. For 2027, it maintained its 2.0% growth forecast, with reconstruction investment expected to offset fiscal headwinds in the first quarter.
The analyst also expects the Thai stock index to move lower as flooding disrupts economic activity. However, easing rainfall should limit the impact on tourism, healthcare and food businesses, potentially creating opportunities to accumulate shares.
Amid this backdrop, INVX recommends CPALL, BJC and CRC as the main beneficiaries of emergency purchases of essential goods. Subsequent housing repairs and infrastructure restoration should also support home improvement retailers HMPRO and GLOBAL, alongside construction materials company DCC.
CENTEL was highlighted as the brokerage’s top pick, with flood-related disruption expected to remain limited unless conditions persist. The upcoming Chinese Golden Week and the tourism high season also offer potential catalysts, while revenue per available room (RevPAR) is showing signs of recovery in the second half of 2026.
INVX forecasts CENTEL’s 2026 normal profit to rise 18% to THB2.3 billion and sets a short-term target price of THB 44.50.
