Flooding in parts of Bangkok, surrounding provinces and other regions is expected to create only a limited earnings impact for Thailand’s retail finance operators, according to Bualuang Securities (BLS) and CGS International Securities. Both brokerages identified TIDLOR and MTC as preferred names in the non-bank financial sector, despite some near-term asset-quality concerns.
BLS said the current floods may affect borrowers of vehicle-title loan providers, but the scale of the damage is unlikely to materially pressure sector profits. The brokerage assumed that 10% of areas in the affected regions are exposed to flooding, representing around 5% of TIDLOR’s loan book, 4% for MTC and 3% for SAWAD.
Under BLS’s scenario, 20% of borrowers in those affected loan pools could face temporary repayment difficulty for about one month. This would require additional provisioning equivalent to roughly 10% of impacted loans during 3Q–4Q26.
Based on these assumptions, BLS estimated the full-year 2026 earnings impact at around 2% for MTC and TIDLOR, and about 1% for SAWAD.
The brokerage also compared the current situation with the Hat Yai flooding late last year, which it viewed as more severe. During 4Q25–1Q26, average credit costs for MTC, SAWAD and TIDLOR rose by only 11 basis points from 3Q25, supporting BLS’ view that the latest floods should not significantly hurt vehicle-title lenders.
CGS International Securities (Thailand) (CGSI) said TIDLOR could see a relatively larger impact due to its branch exposure in flooded areas and the type of collateral affected, particularly four-wheel vehicles. While the company has not provided an estimate of the financial impact, CGSI said TIDLOR may consider setting aside a management overlay for expected credit losses in 3Q26.
For MTC and SAWAD, CGSI expects a smaller effect as most branches are located outside Bangkok and nearby provinces. Although some branches remain closed, the brokerage sees limited risk to loan growth, asset quality and credit costs.
CGS also noted that KTC could face higher delinquency in 4Q26 as affected customers postpone repayments, but the impact on loan growth should be limited. The brokerage highlighted KTC’s high non-performing loan coverage ratio of 400% as of 2Q26.
CGS maintained a Neutral rating on the non-bank financial sector, with TIDLOR and MTC as its top picks. BLS also selected TIDLOR and MTC as preferred stocks in the group.
