UOB Kay Hian Securities (Thailand) wrote that the rainfall situation in Bangkok is starting to improve, with local authorities expecting flood conditions to ease within one to two days.
The brokerage notes that flooding is a recurring annual issue that typically impacts retail businesses, but this year’s disruption is anticipated to be less severe than in 2025 and is expected to be a short-term factor. Historically, September sees the highest rainfall, which gradually decreases thereafter, reflecting that the period of peak rainfall is currently passing.
According to UOBKH, initial feedback from companies shows that consumer behavior has shifted in recent days towards panic buying and stockpiling goods from retail stores across Bangkok.
Among beneficiaries, CPALL, CPAXT, and BJC are expected to see similar positive impacts. Hypermarkets such as CPAXT and BJC are well-positioned with sufficient inventory to meet increased demand, while CPALL’s strength lies in its high concentration of branches in the Bangkok area. The proportion of stores in Bangkok and its vicinity is as follows: 7-Eleven at 41%, Makro at 32%, Lotus’s (data being compiled), BigC hypermarkets and supermarkets at 23%, and BigC Mini at 15%.
Home improvement retailers DOHOME and HMPRO are seen benefiting more from repair demand than GLOBAL due to their higher branch presence in Bangkok and surrounding areas (HMPRO 29%, DOHOME 22%, GLOBAL 4%).
CRC also stands to benefit, but to a lesser degree, as revenue from Tops, Go Wholesale, and Thai Watsadu combined contributes only 47% of total income.
MRDIYT is expected to receive a neutral impact, with only a moderate increase in demand for household products and just 10% of its branches located in Bangkok. The company is generally not top-of-mind for consumers in crises. Meanwhile, MOSHI may see a slight negative effect due to its 32% branch concentration in Bangkok and the greater metropolitan area, which could see a brief slowdown in demand.
CPN is expected to see a minor negative impact from reduced foot traffic over the short flood period, estimated at two to three days. The increased sales at Tops due to stockpiling do not directly benefit CPN, as Tops operates under a fixed rent agreement. However, overall traffic is expected to gradually recover in the coming period.
Given the circumstances, the brokerage only recommends speculative buying in stocks that benefit from stockpiling behavior and increased repair demand and have seen significant price corrections, such as DOHOME, HMPRO, CPALL, CPAXT, and BJC.
