Mr. Gun Hathaisattha, Chief Investment Strategist and Economist of the Research Division at CGS International (CGSI) Securities (Thailand), stated in the “Kaohoon” program on September 28, 2026, that the current flooding situation in Bangkok and surrounding provinces differs from the great flood of 2011. He noted that several locations across Bangkok have been relatively heavily impacted, while Bangkok and surrounding provinces account for approximately 47.3% of Thailand’s economy, making the area crucial to national economic activity.
However, considering overall dam water capacity, the current situation is not yet as severe as in 2011, the analyst remarked. Northern dam water levels in 2026 stand at around 70%, compared to approximately 94% during the 2011 crisis, keeping overall national risks distinct from past events.
Mr. Gun estimates that the Thai stock market today may face selling pressure driven by concerns over flooding, with a possibility that the SET Index could weaken below 1,600 points. However, if the flooding eases within approximately 4 – 5 days and economic activities return to normal quickly, the market correction could present an opportunity to buy selected stock sectors.
Conversely, if the situation drags on beyond 4 – 5 days, economic impacts could escalate, opening additional downside risks for the stock market, as Bangkok serves as a vital central hub for the nation’s economy, consumption, and business activities.
Regarding sectors likely to come under pressure, Mr. Gun noted that the real estate sector carries risks from potentially declining consumer confidence in the short term across both low-rise housing and condominium markets. The property sector is already burdened by existing inventory overhangs, and the flood event could prompt consumers to delay home-buying decisions.
At the same time, stocks with factories or production bases located in flood-risk areas, as well as select electronic component stocks such as KCE, may face short-term selling pressure driven by concerns, even though global electronics industry fundamentals remain strong.
Meanwhile, the retail sector may draw some positive sentiment from demand for consumer goods, essential items, and flood prevention and home repair products, as consumers have been seen rushing to purchase goods at convenience stores and home improvement retailers. However, Mr. Gun cautioned that such positive momentum may only be short-lived, noting that actual sales growth requires close monitoring.
For the insurance sector, risks stem from damage claim liabilities, particularly for vehicles and properties affected by floodwaters. On the other hand, insurance companies continue to benefit from high bond yields, which help support returns on portions of their investment portfolios.
As for commercial banks, stocks could come under pressure due to concerns over expected credit loss (ECL) provisions should borrowers be impacted by flooding. However, if the situation resolves in the short term, the impact on asset quality is likely to remain limited.
For investors looking for bank stocks to navigate uncertainty, Mr. Gun considers large banks with a high proportion of corporate loans to carry lower retail credit risk, citing BBL as having a large corporate loan portfolio, while KBANK and SCB feature differing loan structures.
High-dividend banking and financial stocks, such as TISCO and KKP, may serve as another alternative if investors assess that the flood situation will resolve rapidly, with KKP further supported by the expansion of its investment platform business.
Mr. Gun also advised caution regarding the finance and hire-purchase sector, noting that beyond asset quality risks, high bond yields impact corporate debenture issuance costs and overall funding costs for operators.
Nonetheless, if flood concerns trigger market sell-offs pushing the index below 1,600 points, CGSI views the electronics sector as an attractive buying opportunity, as it is tied more closely to global industry cycles than domestic economic factors.
Specifically, Mr. Gun maintains a positive outlook on DELTA, supported by ongoing expansion in Thai export figures for electronics and electrical appliances, alongside expanding global investment cycles in artificial intelligence, digital infrastructure, semiconductors, and memory chips.
Therefore, should DELTA’s share price decline sharply due to short-term flood factors, Mr. Gun considers it an accumulation opportunity, as the event does not directly affect the company’s primary growth drivers.
For investors seeking to avoid DELTA’s high volatility, peer stocks in the same sector, such as HANA and KCE, can be considered, with Mr. Gun expressing a preference for HANA within this group should its price pull back to an attractive level.
