Kiatnakin Phatra Securities (KKPS) has released an analysis on the impact of Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellite operators, such as Starlink, on ASEAN telecom markets, projecting that no significant disruptions are expected in the next 3-4 years.
While Starlink and other LEO players have introduced fixed broadband and Direct-to-Device (D2D) services in select ASEAN countries, their current capacity limitations and premium pricing are expected to limit any meaningful impact on traditional terrestrial operators’ market share in the near term.
D2D services may actually complement rather than compete with existing mobile services, offering added value and potential to boost average revenue per user. However, the landscape could change by 2030, as Starlink intends to ramp up its network capacity with the development of Starship and V3 satellites.
Regarding share price trends, KKPS notes that since SpaceX’s IPO in June 2026, about half of the ASEAN telecom stocks under Bank of America’s coverage have underperformed their respective markets. The analysts attribute this to broader market dynamics, not competition fears from LEO satellites, as there’s been no evident impact on telco operations so far.
Top sector picks are Advanced Info Service (SET: ADVANC) for solid yields, Globe Telecom (GLO) for monetization potential, Indosat-Hutch (ISAT) for AI-linked growth, Singapore Telecommunications (SingTel) for capital recycling prospects, and PT Telkom (TLKM) for asset unlocking opportunities.
Regionally, Starlink is the leading LEO provider in Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Vietnam. Thailand has not seen Starlink’s entry due to a 49% foreign ownership cap, though OneWeb launched fixed broadband there in 2025 and Amazon Leo has plans for both Indonesia and Thailand.
Starlink’s fixed broadband services command a premium, costing 58% more than terrestrial equivalents in Malaysia and up to four times higher in Vietnam. In the longer term, Indonesia and the Philippines stand out as potential growth markets for LEO broadband due to low fixed-line penetration and dispersed populations.
Starlink’s D2D functionality is currently only available in the Philippines, offering basic text connectivity when terrestrial mobile coverage is absent but lacking conventional voice call support.
