On Friday, the share price of Thai Oil Public Company Limited (SET: TOP) at the time of 11:32 a.m. was at THB 71.50 a THB 4.50 or 6.72% increase with a total trading value of THB 1,636 million.
Meanwhile, the share price of Star Petroleum Refining Public Company Limited (SET: SPRC) was at THB 14.70, a THB 0.70 or 5% increase with a total trading value of THB 402.91 million.
Buying interest in shares of TOP and SPRC emerged amid positive expectations for Asian refining margin outlooks after China restricted oil product exports. Consequently, the market anticipates that regional refined oil supplies could tighten further, particularly middle distillates such as diesel and jet fuel. This trend is expected to bolster product crack spreads and refining margins for non-Chinese refiners, including TOP and SPRC.
Meanwhile, global crude oil prices ticked up slightly on Friday, amid concerns over potentially tightening global fuel supplies following China’s export curbs on refined products. At the same time, Middle East developments returned to focus following reports that the United States is preparing to deploy additional military forces to the region.
At 00:22 a.m. (Greenwich Mean Time), Brent crude rose 0.28% to $102.60 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained 0.29% to $93.14 per barrel.
Oil prices had posted significant gains during Thursday’s trading session after market participants digested news of China’s fuel export restrictions, as well as reports of the U.S. military buildup in the Middle East, heightening concerns of worsening global fuel shortages.
However, on a weekly basis, Brent crude remained on track for a decline of approximately 1.93%, following a total gain of around 14% in September. Meanwhile, WTI gained only about 4% during that month, reflecting a market weighing conflicting bullish and bearish drivers simultaneously.
Regarding the Middle East situation, a Reuters report citing The Wall Street Journal stated that the U.S. is preparing to deploy a third aircraft carrier along with up to 10,000 additional troops to the Middle East, as President Donald Trump considers his stance on Iran following the U.S. midterm elections.
Meanwhile, conditions in China remain another major factor monitored by the market. According to Reuters, major Chinese refiners have not yet received approval to export diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel to markets outside Hong Kong and Macau for October, following a tightening of fuel export quota management by the Chinese government.
China had previously restricted fuel exports in March before partially easing measures in July, subsequently shifting to monthly management of diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel export volumes.
China entered a week-long Golden Week holiday starting October 1, with uncertainty lingering over whether Beijing authorities will resume granting additional refined product export allowances to refiners after the holiday ends on October 7.
China’s export curbs have fueled concerns over regional refined product supply, particularly middle distillates such as diesel and jet fuel. This could strengthen regional product cracks and Asian refining margins, serving as a positive factor for non-Chinese refinery operators such as TOP and SPRC.
In addition, Reuters noted that the U.S. government has urged Germany and France to release diesel from emergency reserves to help alleviate global oil and fuel prices, proposing that the European Union release a total of approximately 120 million barrels of diesel over the next six months.
Currently, European Union member states hold a combined total of nearly 109 million tonnes in emergency crude oil and fuel reserves. If implemented, such stock releases could boost market supply and cap crude price gains in the near term.
