KGI Securities (Thailand) forecasts Siam Global House Public Company Limited (SET: GLOBAL) to report 3Q26 earnings of THB 402 million, representing a 3% year-on-year increase but a significant 58% decline quarter-on-quarter, due mainly to seasonal factors and an unusually high gross margin in 2Q26 from low-cost inventory.
This would bring the company’s 9M26 earnings to THB 2.2 billion, up 41% year-on-year and accounting for 82% of KGI’s full-year forecast. Minimal year-on-year growth in the quarter is expected to be supported by a continued focus on house-brand products, which has successfully bolstered margins, offsetting negative same-store sales growth.
GLOBAL’s 3Q26 sales are projected to reach THB 7.4 billion, remaining flat year-on-year but declining 10% quarter-on-quarter, with seasonality and reduced construction activity during the rainy season cited as primary reasons. While the company pressed ahead with its store expansion, opening two new locations to reach a total of 101 stores (up from 93 the previous year), this was not enough to counteract an expected SSSG dip of -6% for 3Q26 (versus -0.9% in 3Q25 and -4% in 2Q26).
Despite weak demand, internal efforts to improve margins are proving effective. The sales contribution from house brands increased to 27.5% from 27% the previous year, and GLOBAL made price adjustments to further support gross margins. KGI expects a 3Q26 gross margin of 27.1%, up 0.6 percentage points from the prior year but down 4.5 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. For the first nine months of 2026, the gross margin should average 28.4%, exceeding the broker’s full-year assumption.
Looking ahead, KGI anticipates stronger performance for GLOBAL in 4Q26 and 1Q27, as Thailand enters the harvest season, supporting farm income and correlating positively with GLOBAL’s SSSG. Continuing gains from the house-brand strategy and ongoing store expansion are expected to benefit margins and revenue in the coming quarters. However, the exceptional 2Q26 gross margin is expected to normalize, with overall earnings growth forecast to moderate to 4% year-on-year in 2027.
As a result, KGI maintains an end-2027 target price of THB 7.80 for GLOBAL, applying a 16x PER, which represents a valuation discount to account for anticipated slower earnings growth in 2027 as margins normalize. The analyst reiterates an ‘Outperform’ rating, citing medium- to long-term confidence in GLOBAL’s margin expansion and growth from its house-brand focus and ongoing store rollout.
