Krungsri Securities stated that the third-quarter 2026 earnings outlook for BCPG Public Company Limited (SET: BCPG) projects a net profit of THB 858 million, representing a 37% increase year-on-year and a 455% increase quarter-on-quarter.
This growth is supported by electricity generation volumes at U.S. gas-fired power plants boosted by a heatwave, full-quarter earnings recognition from the Hamilton gas-fired power plants (with the sale closing timeline shifted to early 4Q26 from the previously expected 3Q26), and outstanding profit sharing from a wind power plant in Laos that benefited from local monsoons.
However, BCPG’s normalized profit for 4Q26 is expected to decrease both YoY (compared with 4Q25) and QoQ, driven by the planned divestment of its entire 25% stake in the 426-megawatt Hamilton power plants between October and November, which will reduce recognized profit share from U.S. gas-fired facilities. At the same time, the Hamilton equity sale is expected to lead to an extraordinary gain of approximately THB 1.7 billion recorded in 4Q26.
The brokerage maintained a “Neutral” rating on BCPG with an unchanged target price of THB 7.50 per share based on sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation. The analyst also recommends “Hold” the stock to collect dividends supported by a strong financial standing while monitoring future project investments.
Meanwhile, Asia Plus Securities expects BCPG’s 3Q26 net profit to reach THB 924 million, surging 497.4% QoQ. The main driver is a strong improvement in core operating profit, which is projected to rise 456.9% QoQ to THB 1 billion, reaching an all-time quarterly high.
A key growth driver is an expected increase in profit sharing from associate companies, buoyed by stronger performance from U.S. power plants and the Monsoon wind power project, which generated higher electricity output due to favorable wind conditions during the monsoon season. Asia Plus Securities maintains a “Buy” recommendation with a target price of THB 8.00 per share.
Mr. Rawee Boonsinsukh, Chief Executive Officer and President of BCPG, previously stated that an Extraordinary General Meeting of Shareholders on July 7, 2026, approved the sale of investment in Hamilton Holdings II, LLC, which holds equity in two natural gas power plant projects—namely the Hamilton Liberty project and the Hamilton Patriot project in Pennsylvania, U.S.—with a total equity-adjusted capacity of 426 megawatts, representing a total enterprise value of $575 million (approximately THB 18,754 million). The transaction involves selling shares jointly with all other shareholders under drag-along rights conditions.
From this transaction, the company will receive approximately $354 million in cash, which, together with approximately $72 million in dividends received from the project, brings total cumulative cash returns to 1.6 times its initial investment. The company will utilize the proceeds to strengthen its financial position, increase liquidity, and enhance capital management flexibility to support future strategic investments in clean energy and infrastructure businesses.
