On Tuesday at 11:15 AM (Bangkok time), the share price of Berli Jucker Public Company Limited (SET: BJC) jumped by 4.79% or THB 0.90 to THB 19.70, with a trading value of THB 307.19 million.
TISCO Securities projects BJC’s 3Q26 net profit at THB 1.8 billion, marking a sharp 182.8% year-on-year increase, but a 37.5% drop quarter-on-quarter, largely due to an extraordinary gain from a THB 1 billion post-tax land sale and a THB 100 million post-tax restructuring expense at headquarters.
Stripping out these special items worth THB 903 million, normalized profit is estimated at THB 897 million—up 43.6% year-on-year but down 24% from the previous quarter. Total sales are forecast at THB 44 billion, a rise of 6.8% year-on-year and 1.1% quarter-on-quarter, supported by growth in packaging and a recovering retail business.
However, BJC’s gross profit margin is expected to dip to 19.41%, down 0.09 percentage points year-on-year and 0.76 points quarter-on-quarter. This pressure stems from a higher share of lower-margin overseas glass revenue, higher gas and raw material costs, and price competition in pharmaceuticals. The SG&A-to-sales ratio, excluding restructuring costs, is seen improving to 20.20% from 20.47% a year earlier, alleviating pressure on profit margins.
Looking ahead, 4Q26 is expected to show a continued recovery in normalized profit, supported by the retail sector’s high season and further improvement in the SG&A-to-sales ratio. BJC also anticipates recognizing another THB 900 million post-tax land sale gain and recording THB 100–200 million in additional restructuring costs for branch staff.
The restructuring, completed at headquarters in 3Q26 and ongoing at branches, is expected to reduce annual head office expenses by THB 500–600 million and branch expenses by THB 600–700 million, yielding total savings of THB 1.1–1.3 billion per year, with full impact from 2027 onward.
The company is closing 12 Big C Hypermarket branches in 2026, with the last four scheduled for 4Q26. This will reduce Big C sales by about 1.7% and rental income by 0.7% but is expected to lower EBITDA loss by approximately THB 220 million per year.
As a result, TISCO maintains a ‘Buy’ recommendation on BJC, raising its target price to THB 20.40 based on projected 2027 earnings and an average 2-year PER +0.5 standard deviation, reflecting greater clarity around the business recovery. Growth in same-store sales and improved retail margins are seen as positives, while cost reductions from restructuring will be a key driver of normalized profit recovery in 2027.
Additionally, Mrs. Thapanee Techajareonvikul, Chief Executive Officer and President of BJC, noted that 3Q26 performance is expected to continue improving, with the Vietnam business maintaining a positive direction. The company is focusing on enhancing operational efficiency and cost management in line with business conditions.
In the retail segment, BJC is shifting away from rapid expansion and prioritizing branches that meet community needs and provide quality customer experiences, while increasing the proportion of appropriately margined products to enhance returns per branch.
For the second half of the year, BJC expects steady performance improvement, further supported by MM Mega Market Vietnam (MMVN), helping strengthen the business portfolio. The company is confident that 2026 performance will outshine 2025, with first-half special gains from land sales and second-half contributions from MMVN.
Cost control remains a focus, with ongoing SG&A management and reviews of branch structure and operational processes to boost long-term efficiency and reduce costs. In packaging, BJC is expanding its customer base in high-margin products such as the Small Premium and Small Bottle Premium segments, increasing agility in new product trials, and preparing for consumer trends. The company also plans to expand food and consumer goods production capacity, utilizing existing factory space and Big C warehouses to improve storage and distribution.
Operational improvements and investments are projected to yield annual cost savings of THB 150–160 million. The Vietnam business, including toilet tissue manufacturing and MMVN, continues to perform well. BJC plans to increase MMVN branches to 31 by 2030 (from 24 currently), aiming to raise the MMVN contribution from 15% to 40–50% of total revenue by 2040.
In Cambodia, BJC is reviewing branch performance, with two large profitable branches and 19 small ones. These strategies align with BJC’s focus on efficiency and expanding regional business opportunities in ASEAN.
BJC is also building a new factory in Bang Pa-In, expected to be completed in July 2028, with a total investment of approximately THB 5.44 billion. The company will gradually allocate around THB 3 billion for investment next year, with further expansion planned to support future capacity, including for Personal Care and potentially Cleaning Solution products.
