Krungsri Securities (KSS) views the Thai government’s support scheme for residential solar rooftop installations as a positive development for the renewable energy industry, with an estimated market value of approximately THB 140 billion for solar rooftop equipment procurement and installation.
Under the scheme, the government will provide subsidies of THB 50,000 per household for solar rooftop systems with capacities of 5–10 kilowatts, targeting a maximum of one million households. The programme represents an estimated total generation capacity of 5–10 gigawatts and requires a budget of approximately THB 50 billion from the THB 400 billion emergency loan decree. Registration is now open until January 31, 2027.
Participating contractors must be included on the list of approved service providers authorised by the Metropolitan Electricity Authority (MEA) or the Provincial Electricity Authority (PEA). They are also required to provide a THB 50,000 performance guarantee per project for six months, alongside a THB 10,000 bank guarantee per project covering a seven-year period.
Additional requirements include project warranties, fire insurance coverage, and operation and maintenance services at least once annually for seven years, as well as minimum standards for electrical equipment and solar panels.
Separately, the Cabinet has approved THB 22 billion in investment for Smart Grid development, divided equally between the PEA and MEA, with each authority receiving THB 11 billion. The funding will support the installation of three million smart meters to accommodate the expansion of residential solar installations and the growing number of electric vehicle users. Implementation is scheduled from October 2026 to September 2027.
Krungsri considers the measures broadly positive for the industry. Although numerous contractors and listed companies are expected to participate, the brokerage believes stringent regulatory requirements will favour operators with strong financial positions, engineering, procurement and construction expertise, and extensive service networks. Requirements covering financial guarantees, equipment standards, and long-term after-sales services could strengthen the competitive position of established operators.
GUNKUL is identified as one of the key beneficiaries. Its trading business is expected to gain from rising demand for electrical equipment, potentially supporting both selling prices and sales volumes. The company also has opportunities to secure additional EPC and trading backlogs in 2027 as the PEA and MEA increase investment in electricity grid upgrades and expansion.
In the near term, several approved projects are awaiting successive bidding processes, with their combined value exceeding THB 260 billion.
Krungsri maintains its bullish outlook on the power generation sector, supported by the long-term investment theme surrounding data centres. The brokerage retains GULF and GPSC as its top picks, both with ‘Buy’ recommendations. GULF has a 2027 target price of THB 77.00 per share, while GPSC carries a target price of THB 61.00 per share.
According to the analyst, the current target prices do not yet incorporate potential upside from additional generation capacity under the 2026 Power Development Plan.
