Mr. Pobchai Phatrawit, Equity and Digital Asset Strategist at InnovestX Securities, stated on the ‘Kaohoon’ program on November 2, 2026, that the Thai stock market is expected to face continued volatility this week from external factors, particularly the U.S. midterm elections on November 3. The outcome could mark a pivotal turning point for global equity markets and capital flows. He projected the SET Index to move within a support level of 1,510 points and a resistance level of 1,525 points.
Preliminary results from the U.S. midterms are expected to emerge during the morning of November 4 (Bangkok time). Pre-election polls indicate a strong possibility of the Democratic Party regaining a majority in the House of Representatives and potentially the Senate. Such an outcome would result in a divided government, placing legislative checks and balances on President Donald Trump’s policy-making authority.
Historical data across 20 past U.S. midterm elections since World War II shows a 90% probability of the minority party taking back the House majority and a 70% probability of a shift in the Senate. Mr. Pobchai noted that the S&P 500 Index tends to react positively to a divided government due to lower risk of drastic policy implementations, typically advancing 5 – 6% over three months and 12 – 14% over six months post-election.
While the Thai benchmark does not face direct operational impacts from the election, it stands to benefit from a broader recovery in risk sentiment and foreign portfolio inflows once global political uncertainties subside.
Aside from political developments, investors continue to monitor global tech stocks following sharp selloffs that have pressured local electronic components. Meanwhile, domestic energy, refinery, and petrochemical sectors remain under pressure from pending energy price restructuring policies.
Among individual equities, Mr. Pobchai highlighted DELTA following recent price pullbacks driven by softer-than-expected 3Q26 earnings and global tech weakness. Part of DELTA’s 3Q26 margin pressure resulted from inventory-related provisions on advance component procurement to guard against supply shortages. Analysts expect these provisions to support upcoming deliveries, positioning 4Q26 earnings for a strong recovery toward potential record highs, alongside projected EPS growth of 34% in 2026 and 42% in 2027. With fundamental recovery intact, prices near the 200-baht level present an attractive entry point for long-term investors.
For overall investment strategy, tactical allocations include upside-potential plays in aviation (AAV, THAI) and small power producers (GPSC, BGRIM). For lower-risk portfolios, resilient defensive picks remain favored, including commercial banks (BBL, KBANK, KTB), healthcare operators (BDMS, BH), and consumer retailers (CRC, CPALL).
